luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 25, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Capitals, Oct 25, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Senators beat the Capitals 7–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 16:33 left): Shane Pinto scored on a wrist shot from 5 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Senators.

Final

Ottawa Senators 7
Washington Capitals 1

October 25, 2025 · Capital One Arena

Luck index +26 Senators lucky · −26 Capitals

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 7, Capitals win 3.

  1. 1 OTT 6 WSH 0
  2. 2 OTT 7 WSH 2
  3. 3 OTT 4 WSH 1
  4. 4 OTT 4 WSH 1
  5. 5 OTT 4 WSH 1
  6. 6 OTT 4 WSH 3
  7. 7 OTT 2 WSH 1
  8. 8 OTT 4 WSH 5
  9. 9 OTT 2 WSH 3
  10. 10 OTT 3 WSH 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Senators win 74% of them, Capitals 26%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+47.0%
Senators by 212.1%
Senators by 115.4%
Capitals by 116.5%
Capitals by 24.7%
Capitals by 3+4.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 goals to the Senators: the final margin was Senators by 6, without the luck Senators by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators4573.82+3.18
Capitals2911.70−0.70

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:55 Holding on the Senators (Nikolas Matinpalo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P1 12:18 Tripping on the Capitals (Tom Wilson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 16:33 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Capitals (WSH): 2 minutes on the power play +3% OTT
P2 7:31 Hooking on the Senators (Shane Pinto): 2 minutes on the power play +1% WSH
P2 0:33 Goalie leave crease on the Capitals (Charlie Lindgren): 2 minutes on the power play 0% OTT
P3 10:43 Slashing on the Capitals (Justin Sourdif): 2 minutes on the power play 0% OTT

When it happened

Capitals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Capitals were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:02 Dylan Cozens scored on a tip from 20 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% OTT –
2 P1 16:55 Holding on the Senators (Nikolas Matinpalo): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% WSH –
3 P1 15:17 Tim Stützle’s snap shot from 19 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance +3% WSH –
4 P1 12:18 Tripping on the Capitals (Tom Wilson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% OTT –
5 P1 6:24 David Perron’s snap shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +3% WSH –
6 P2 16:33 Shane Pinto scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 22% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Capitals (WSH): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +15% OTT –
7 P2 15:33 Dylan Cozens scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 17% chance +8% OTT –
8 P2 13:38 Nick Cousins scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 12% chance +4% OTT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 97% · Capitals 3%

Final margin
Senators by 6
Luck in goals
2.9 for the Senators
Luck-adjusted margin
Senators by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Senators 74% · Capitals 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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