2025-26 regular season · November 2, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Devils at Ducks, Nov 2, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Ducks beat the Devils 4–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 15:47 left): Beckett Sennecke scored on a wrist shot from 10 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Ducks.
Final
 New Jersey Devils | 1 |
|---|---|
 Anaheim Ducks | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +36 Ducks lucky · −36 Devils
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Devils win 4, Ducks win 6.
- 1 NJD 6 ANA 3
- 2 NJD 3 ANA 1
- 3 NJD 2 ANA 1
- 4 NJD 3 ANA 2
- 5 NJD 2 ANA 3
- 6 NJD 2 ANA 3
- 7 NJD 2 ANA 4
- 8 NJD 2 ANA 5
- 9 NJD 1 ANA 5
- 10 NJD 1 ANA 6
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Devils win 36% of them, Ducks 64%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Devils by 3+ | 10.4% |
| Devils by 2 | 6.7% |
| Devils by 1 | 18.7% |
| Ducks by 1 | 20.7% |
| Ducks by 2 | 11.9% |
| Ducks by 3+ | 31.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Devils | 51 | 1 | 2.86 | −1.86 |
 Ducks | 42 | 3 | 3.18 | −0.18 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 9:50 | Holding on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% NJD |
| P1 5:12 | Tripping on the Devils (Luke Hughes): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% ANA |
| P3 14:26 | Roughing on the Devils (Dawson Mercer): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% ANA |
When it happened
Ducks’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 15:47 | Beckett Sennecke scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 14% chance | +14% ANA | – |
| 2 | P1 9:50 | Holding on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% NJD | – |
| 3 | P1 5:36 | Frank Vatrano scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 13% chance | +12% ANA | – |
| 4 | P1 5:12 | Tripping on the Devils (Luke Hughes): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% ANA | – |
| 5 | P1 1:46 | Timo Meier’s tip from 4 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance | +3% ANA | – |
| 6 | P1 1:45 | Timo Meier’s tip from 4 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance | +3% ANA | – |
| 7 | P2 18:06 | Cutter Gauthier scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 4% chance | +8% ANA | – |
| 8 | P3 12:17 | Jack Hughes scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 13% chance | +3% NJD | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Devils 17% · Ducks 83%
- Final margin
- Ducks by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for the Ducks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ducks by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Devils 36% · Ducks 64% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 4, 2025-26
- Kings at Sharks Oct 28, 2025 · LAK 4–3 · replay 16% for the winner
- Devils at Kings Nov 1, 2025 · NJD 4–1 · replay 26% for the winner
- Avalanche at Sharks Nov 1, 2025 · SJS 3–2 OT · replay 26% for the winner
- Predators at Flyers Oct 30, 2025 · PHI 4–1 · replay 31% for the winner
- Ducks at Panthers Oct 28, 2025 · ANA 3–2 SO · replay 31% for the winner
- Canucks at Blues Oct 30, 2025 · VAN 4–3 SO · replay 32% for the winner
- Islanders at Bruins Oct 28, 2025 · BOS 5–2 · replay 34% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Blue Jackets Oct 29, 2025 · CBJ 6–3 · replay 38% for the winner
- Red Wings at Ducks Oct 31, 2025 · ANA 5–2 · replay 41% for the winner
- Mammoth at Oilers Oct 28, 2025 · EDM 6–3 · replay 42% for the winner
- Blues at Penguins Oct 27, 2025 · PIT 6–3 · replay 43% for the winner
- Red Wings at Kings Oct 30, 2025 · DET 4–3 SO · replay 43% for the winner