luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · November 1, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Penguins at Jets, Nov 1, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Penguins 5–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 19:45 left): Gabriel Vilardi scored on a wrist shot from 5 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Winnipeg Jets 5

November 1, 2025 · Canada Life Centre

Luck index +39 Jets lucky · −39 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penguins win 4, Jets win 6.

  1. 1 PIT 5 WPG 2
  2. 2 PIT 6 WPG 4
  3. 3 PIT 3 WPG 2
  4. 4 PIT 4 WPG 3
  5. 5 PIT 3 WPG 4
  6. 6 PIT 3 WPG 4
  7. 7 PIT 3 WPG 5
  8. 8 PIT 2 WPG 5
  9. 9 PIT 2 WPG 5
  10. 10 PIT 2 WPG 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Penguins win 39% of them, Jets 61%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penguins by 3+13.5%
Penguins by 28.0%
Penguins by 117.9%
Jets by 119.6%
Jets by 210.7%
Jets by 3+30.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 3, without the luck Jets by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Penguins4422.90−0.90
Jets4643.41+0.59

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:21 Hooking on the Penguins (Sidney Crosby): 2 minutes on the power play +3% WPG
P1 4:17 Slashing on the Penguins (Evgeni Malkin): 2 minutes on the power play +3% WPG
P2 16:11 Slashing on the Penguins (Kris Letang): 2 minutes on the power play +1% WPG
P2 9:30 Interference on the Jets (Dylan DeMelo): 2 minutes on the power play +1% PIT
P2 0:37 Holding on the Jets (Neal Pionk): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PIT
P3 0:00 Hooking on the Penguins (Parker Wotherspoon): 2 minutes on the power play 0% WPG

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Penguins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:45 Gabriel Vilardi scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 7% chance +14% WPG –
2 P1 17:17 Brad Lambert scored on a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 19% chance +10% WPG –
3 P1 16:21 Hooking on the Penguins (Sidney Crosby): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% WPG –
4 P1 12:43 Blake Lizotte’s wrist shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +2% WPG –
5 P1 4:17 Slashing on the Penguins (Evgeni Malkin): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% WPG –
6 P2 18:43 Vladislav Namestnikov scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 8% chance +8% WPG –
7 P2 7:47 Kyle Connor scored on a backhand shot from 13 feetShooting · 15% chance +2% WPG –
8 P3 9:33 Blake Lizotte scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 18% chance +3% PIT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penguins 20% · Jets 80%

Final margin
Jets by 3
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Penguins 39% · Jets 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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