luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 31, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Islanders at Capitals, Oct 31, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Islanders beat the Capitals 3–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Islanders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 27 points of win probability to the Islanders.

The game turned on a luck play (P2, 5:02 left): Jean-Gabriel Pageau scored on a tip from 13 feet, worth 26 points of win probability to the Islanders.

Final

New York Islanders 3
Washington Capitals 1

October 31, 2025 · Capital One Arena

Luck index +48 Islanders lucky · −48 Capitals

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Islanders win 5, Capitals win 5.

  1. 1 NYI 5 WSH 1
  2. 2 NYI 8 WSH 5
  3. 3 NYI 7 WSH 5
  4. 4 NYI 4 WSH 3
  5. 5 NYI 3 WSH 2
  6. 6 NYI 2 WSH 3
  7. 7 NYI 2 WSH 3
  8. 8 NYI 3 WSH 5
  9. 9 NYI 2 WSH 5
  10. 10 NYI 4 WSH 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Islanders win 52% of them, Capitals 48%. The line is what actually happened: Islanders by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Islanders by 3+22.0%
Islanders by 210.2%
Islanders by 119.8%
Capitals by 121.0%
Capitals by 29.7%
Capitals by 3+17.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Islanders: the final margin was Islanders by 2, without the luck Islanders by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Islanders3922.98−0.98
Capitals3412.92−1.92

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:26 Holding on the Islanders (Casey Cizikas): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P2 13:05 Tripping on the Capitals (Hendrix Lapierre): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYI
P2 7:50 Holding on the Capitals (Brandon Duhaime): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYI
P2 5:47 Interference on the Islanders (Calum Ritchie): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P2 5:02 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Capitals (WSH): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYI
P2 2:10 Hooking on the Islanders (Calum Ritchie): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WSH
P3 18:37 Delaying game puck over glass on the Capitals (Jakob Chychrun): 2 minutes on the power play +6% NYI
P3 13:44 Tripping on the Islanders (Anders Lee): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH
P3 7:58 Holding on the Capitals (Nic Dowd): 2 minutes on the power play +6% NYI

When it happened

Capitals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Capitals were ahead in it, below while the Islanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 15:12 Tom Wilson scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 12% chance +17% WSH –
2 P2 5:02 The game turned hereJean-Gabriel Pageau scored on a tip from 13 feetShooting · 7% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Capitals (WSH): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +26% NYI –
3 P2 2:10 Hooking on the Islanders (Calum Ritchie): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% WSH –
4 P3 18:37 Delaying game puck over glass on the Capitals (Jakob Chychrun): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% NYI –
5 P3 17:00 Emil Heineman missed the net with a snap shot from 14 feetShooting · 23% chance +6% WSH –
6 P3 15:31 Bo Horvat scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 7% chance +26% NYI –
7 P3 13:44 Tripping on the Islanders (Anders Lee): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% WSH –
8 P3 7:58 Holding on the Capitals (Nic Dowd): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% NYI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Islanders 70% · Capitals 30%

Final margin
Islanders by 2
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Islanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Islanders by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Islanders 52% · Capitals 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 4 2025-26 games · Islanders · Capitals

More from week 4, 2025-26

Every game of week 4, 2025-26