2025-26 regular season · April 4, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Maple Leafs at Kings, Apr 4, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Kings beat the Maple Leafs 7–6, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Maple Leafs had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 63 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.
The game turned on a luck play (P2, 5:07 left): Artemi Panarin scored on a tip from 8 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Kings. The biggest single swing (OT): the Kings won in overtime.
Final (OT)
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 6 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Kings | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Kings about even · −24 Maple Leafs
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 2, Kings win 8.
- 1 TOR 4 LAK 1
- 2 TOR 3 LAK 2
- 3 TOR 4 LAK 5
- 4 TOR 2 LAK 3
- 5 TOR 2 LAK 4
- 6 TOR 2 LAK 5
- 7 TOR 2 LAK 5
- 8 TOR 2 LAK 6
- 9 TOR 0 LAK 5
- 10 TOR 2 LAK 8
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Maple Leafs win 24% of them, Kings 76%. The line is what actually happened: Kings by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maple Leafs by 3+ | 5.1% |
| Maple Leafs by 2 | 5.0% |
| Maple Leafs by 1 | 14.1% |
| Kings by 1 | 15.5% |
| Kings by 2 | 11.5% |
| Kings by 3+ | 48.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maple Leafs | 30 | 6 | 2.19 | +3.81 |
 Kings | 62 | 6 | 4.41 | +1.59 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 6:56 | Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Philippe Myers): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% LAK |
| P1 2:59 | Roughing on the Maple Leafs (Max Domi): 4 minutes on the power play | +6% LAK |
| P2 18:12 | High sticking on the Kings (Mikey Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TOR |
| P2 15:28 | A Kings goal came off the board on review (off side) | +20% TOR |
| P2 14:29 | Too many men on the ice on the Maple Leafs (TOR): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% LAK |
| P2 11:18 | Hooking on the Kings (Brian Dumoulin): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% TOR |
| P2 4:24 | Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Max Domi): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% LAK |
| P2 0:29 | Holding on the Kings (Joel Armia): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% TOR |
| P2 0:13 | Cross checking on the Kings (Scott Laughton): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% TOR |
When it happened
Kings’ chance of winning
As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 16:05 | Adrian Kempe scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 13% chance | +17% LAK | – |
| 2 | P2 15:28 | A Kings goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals | +20% TOR | – |
| 3 | P2 5:07 | The game turned hereArtemi Panarin scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 7% chance | +22% LAK | – |
| 4 | P2 0:13 | Easton Cowan scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 23% chanceCross checking on the Kings (Scott Laughton): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +24% TOR | – |
| 5 | P3 14:14 | Adrian Kempe scored on a wrist shot from 39 feetShooting · 5% chance | +28% LAK | – |
| 6 | P3 13:46 | Samuel Helenius scored on a wrist shot from 35 feetShooting · 5% chance | +27% LAK | – |
| 7 | P3 6:31 | Matthew Knies scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 5% chance | +34% TOR | – |
| 8 | OT | The Kings won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +49% LAK | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maple Leafs 18% · Kings 82%
- Final margin
- Kings by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for the Maple Leafs
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kings by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Maple Leafs 24% · Kings 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 26, 2025-26
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