luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 4, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Red Wings at Rangers, Apr 4, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Rangers beat the Red Wings 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Rangers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 24 points of win probability to the Rangers.

The biggest swing (P1, 6:41 left): Jaroslav Chmelar scored on a tip from 10 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Rangers.

Final

Detroit Red Wings 1
New York Rangers 4

April 4, 2026 · Madison Square Garden

Luck index +50 Rangers lucky · −50 Red Wings

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Red Wings win 5, Rangers win 5.

  1. 1 DET 5 NYR 2
  2. 2 DET 3 NYR 0
  3. 3 DET 4 NYR 2
  4. 4 DET 3 NYR 2
  5. 5 DET 1 NYR 0
  6. 6 DET 2 NYR 3
  7. 7 DET 4 NYR 5
  8. 8 DET 3 NYR 4
  9. 9 DET 1 NYR 4
  10. 10 DET 1 NYR 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Red Wings win 50% of them, Rangers 50%. The line is what actually happened: Rangers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Red Wings by 3+16.8%
Red Wings by 210.7%
Red Wings by 122.8%
Rangers by 123.6%
Rangers by 29.8%
Rangers by 3+16.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 goals to the Rangers: the final margin was Rangers by 3, without the luck Rangers by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Red Wings5713.10−2.10
Rangers2932.25+0.75

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:06 Tripping on the Red Wings (Andrew Copp): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYR
P1 4:47 Interference on the Rangers (J.T. Miller): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P2 6:56 Slashing on the Rangers (Drew Fortescue): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P3 14:16 High sticking on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power play +2% NYR
P3 11:41 High sticking on the Rangers (Conor Sheary): 2 minutes on the power play +1% DET
P3 5:45 High sticking on the Rangers (Noah Laba): 2 minutes on the power play 0% DET

When it happened

Rangers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Rangers were ahead in it, below while the Red Wings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:06 Tripping on the Red Wings (Andrew Copp): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NYR –
2 P1 15:36 Mika Zibanejad missed the net with a slap shot from 19 feetShooting · 30% chance +5% DET –
3 P1 6:41 Jaroslav Chmelar scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 8% chance +16% NYR –
4 P1 4:47 Interference on the Rangers (J.T. Miller): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% DET –
5 P1 1:45 David Perron’s snap shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +3% NYR –
6 P2 6:56 Slashing on the Rangers (Drew Fortescue): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% DET –
7 P2 4:01 Gabe Perreault scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% NYR –
8 P3 12:47 Gabe Perreault scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 22% chance +3% NYR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Red Wings 30% · Rangers 70%

Final margin
Rangers by 3
Luck in goals
2.1 for the Rangers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rangers by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Red Wings 50% · Rangers 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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