luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 13, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Red Wings at Maple Leafs, Oct 13, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Red Wings beat the Maple Leafs 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Maple Leafs: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 33 points of win probability to the Red Wings.

The biggest swing (P3, 0:45 left): Mason Appleton scored on a wrist shot from 33 feet, worth 44 points of win probability to the Red Wings.

Final

Detroit Red Wings 3
Toronto Maple Leafs 2

October 13, 2025 · Scotiabank Arena

Luck index +62 Red Wings very lucky · −62 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Red Wings win 4, Maple Leafs win 6.

  1. 1 DET 4 TOR 1
  2. 2 DET 3 TOR 1
  3. 3 DET 2 TOR 1
  4. 4 DET 4 TOR 3
  5. 5 DET 3 TOR 4
  6. 6 DET 1 TOR 2
  7. 7 DET 0 TOR 2
  8. 8 DET 0 TOR 3
  9. 9 DET 0 TOR 3
  10. 10 DET 2 TOR 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Red Wings win 38% of them, Maple Leafs 62%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Red Wings by 3+9.0%
Red Wings by 28.1%
Red Wings by 121.4%
Maple Leafs by 122.0%
Maple Leafs by 211.9%
Maple Leafs by 3+27.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 goals to the Red Wings: the final margin was Red Wings by 1, without the luck Maple Leafs by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Red Wings2931.93+1.07
Maple Leafs5323.23−1.23

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 3:07 Cross checking on the Maple Leafs (Morgan Rielly): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P1 1:18 Delaying game puck over glass on the Maple Leafs (Simon Benoit): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P2 6:03 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Simon Benoit): 2 minutes on the power play +5% DET
P2 4:38 Interference on the Red Wings (Dylan Larkin): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TOR
P2 2:29 Too many men on the ice on the Maple Leafs (TOR): 2 minutes on the power play +5% DET
P3 9:21 High sticking on the Red Wings (Dylan Larkin): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TOR

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Red Wings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 1:10 Dylan Larkin’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 32% chance +6% TOR –
2 P1 1:05 Dylan Larkin scored on a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 13% chance +16% DET –
3 P3 15:35 James van Riemsdyk scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% DET –
4 P3 12:31 Matthew Knies scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 12% chance +13% TOR –
5 P3 6:18 Calle Jarnkrok scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 8% chance +34% TOR –
6 P3 0:45 Mason Appleton scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 5% chance +43% DET –
7 P3 0:19 Easton Cowan’s tip from 5 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance +6% DET –
8 P3 0:18 Easton Cowan missed the net with a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 16% chance +8% DET –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Red Wings 28% · Maple Leafs 72%

Final margin
Red Wings by 1
Luck in goals
1.7 for the Red Wings
Luck-adjusted margin
Maple Leafs by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Red Wings 38% · Maple Leafs 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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