2025-26 regular season · October 19, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Oilers at Red Wings, Oct 19, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Red Wings beat the Oilers 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Red Wings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 18 points of win probability to the Red Wings.
The biggest swing (P2, 11:09 left): Dylan Larkin scored on a tip from 28 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Red Wings.
Final
 Edmonton Oilers | 2 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Red Wings | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Red Wings lucky · −49 Oilers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oilers win 5, Red Wings win 5.
- 1 EDM 4 DET 1
- 2 EDM 4 DET 1
- 3 EDM 3 DET 1
- 4 EDM 1 DET 0
- 5 EDM 2 DET 1
- 6 EDM 1 DET 2
- 7 EDM 2 DET 3
- 8 EDM 2 DET 4
- 9 EDM 1 DET 3
- 10 EDM 1 DET 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Oilers win 49% of them, Red Wings 51%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oilers by 3+ | 14.8% |
| Oilers by 2 | 10.4% |
| Oilers by 1 | 24.1% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 25.8% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 10.5% |
| Red Wings by 3+ | 14.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oilers | 31 | 2 | 1.89 | +0.11 |
 Red Wings | 38 | 3 | 1.87 | +1.13 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 10:28 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Andrew Copp): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
When it happened
Red Wings’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 11:09 | Dylan Larkin scored on a tip from 28 feetShooting · 5% chance | +20% DET | – |
| 2 | P2 10:28 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Andrew Copp): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% EDM | – |
| 3 | P2 8:06 | Emmitt Finnie scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 13% chance | +13% DET | – |
| 4 | P2 7:35 | Noah Philp scored on a tip from 14 feetShooting · 7% chance | +14% EDM | – |
| 5 | P2 2:55 | Dylan Larkin scored on a wrist shot from 45 feetShooting · 1% chance | +15% DET | – |
| 6 | P3 12:27 | Leon Draisaitl scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 23% chance | +11% EDM | – |
| 7 | P3 4:22 | Mattias Ekholm missed the net with a tip from 14 feetShooting · 7% chance | +3% DET | – |
| 8 | P3 1:22 | Emmitt Finnie scored on a wrist shot from 93 feet into the empty netEmpty-net goals · 42% chance | +3% DET | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oilers 35% · Red Wings 65%
- Final margin
- Red Wings by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for the Red Wings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Red Wings by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Oilers 49% · Red Wings 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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