luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 13, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Predators at Senators, Oct 13, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Predators beat the Senators 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Predators win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Predators.

The biggest swing (P2, 13:55 left): A Senators goal came off the board on review (goal interference), worth 20 points of win probability to the Predators.

Final

Nashville Predators 4
Ottawa Senators 1

October 13, 2025 · Canadian Tire Centre

Luck index +52 Predators lucky · −52 Senators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Predators win 5, Senators win 5.

  1. 1 NSH 4 OTT 1
  2. 2 NSH 3 OTT 1
  3. 3 NSH 2 OTT 1
  4. 4 NSH 2 OTT 1
  5. 5 NSH 1 OTT 0
  6. 6 NSH 2 OTT 3
  7. 7 NSH 2 OTT 3
  8. 8 NSH 2 OTT 4
  9. 9 NSH 0 OTT 2
  10. 10 NSH 1 OTT 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Predators win 48% of them, Senators 52%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Predators by 3+14.1%
Predators by 210.7%
Predators by 123.7%
Senators by 124.2%
Senators by 211.6%
Senators by 3+15.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Predators: the final margin was Predators by 3, without the luck Predators by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Predators3321.94+0.06
Senators4912.63−1.63

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:37 Delaying game puck over glass on the Senators (Nick Jensen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P1 15:59 Interference on the Predators (Fedor Svechkov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P1 14:36 Cross checking on the Predators (Roman Josi): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P1 10:27 Holding on the Senators (Shane Pinto): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P1 5:19 Cross checking on the Predators (Nick Perbix): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P1 3:08 Bench on the Senators (OTT): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P1 0:10 Cross checking on the Senators (Tyler Kleven): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P2 13:55 A Senators goal came off the board on review (goal interference) +20% NSH
P2 3:07 Hooking on the Predators (Erik Haula): 2 minutes on the power play +5% OTT
P2 2:29 Hooking on the Senators (Shane Pinto): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NSH
P3 8:44 Tripping on the Senators (David Perron): 2 minutes on the power play +6% NSH
P3 2:11 Tripping on the Predators (Erik Haula): 2 minutes on the power play +1% OTT

When it happened

Senators’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Senators were ahead in it, below while the Predators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 0:10 Cross checking on the Senators (Tyler Kleven): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NSH –
2 P2 13:55 A Senators goal came off the board on review (goal interference)Overturned goals +20% NSH –
3 P2 7:49 Jonathan Marchessault scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 14% chance +19% NSH –
4 P2 3:07 Hooking on the Predators (Erik Haula): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% OTT –
5 P2 2:29 Hooking on the Senators (Shane Pinto): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% NSH –
6 P3 8:44 Tripping on the Senators (David Perron): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% NSH –
7 P3 5:22 Ryan O'Reilly scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 18% chance +9% NSH –
8 P3 2:03 Ridly Greig scored on a deflected shot from 10 feetShooting · 11% chance +6% OTT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Predators 86% · Senators 14%

Final margin
Predators by 3
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Predators
Luck-adjusted margin
Predators by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Predators 48% · Senators 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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