luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · October 16, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Jets at Flyers, Oct 16, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Flyers 5–2, but the replays lean toward the Flyers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 28 points of win probability to the Jets.

The biggest swing (P2, 3:38 left): Owen Tippett scored on a snap shot from 37 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final

Winnipeg Jets 5
Philadelphia Flyers 2

October 16, 2025 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +61 Jets very lucky · −61 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 4, Flyers win 6.

  1. 1 WPG 4 PHI 1
  2. 2 WPG 6 PHI 4
  3. 3 WPG 2 PHI 1
  4. 4 WPG 3 PHI 2
  5. 5 WPG 0 PHI 1
  6. 6 WPG 3 PHI 4
  7. 7 WPG 0 PHI 1
  8. 8 WPG 1 PHI 3
  9. 9 WPG 0 PHI 3
  10. 10 WPG 1 PHI 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 39% of them, Flyers 61%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 3+7.6%
Jets by 28.3%
Jets by 123.5%
Flyers by 127.9%
Flyers by 212.5%
Flyers by 3+20.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 goals to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 3, without the luck Jets by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Jets2141.33+2.67
Flyers2722.05−0.05

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 16:32 Holding on the Jets (Dylan DeMelo): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 7:22 Holding on the Jets (Jonathan Toews): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P3 10:44 Interference on the Flyers (Trevor Zegras): 2 minutes on the power play +2% WPG
P3 9:22 Interference on the Jets (Jonathan Toews): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PHI
P3 0:00 Roughing on the Jets (Logan Stanley): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PHI

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:16 Nino Niederreiter’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +3% PHI –
2 P1 14:15 Vladislav Namestnikov scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 15% chance +14% WPG –
3 P2 16:32 Holding on the Jets (Dylan DeMelo): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PHI –
4 P2 16:17 Travis Konecny missed the net with a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 18% chance +4% WPG –
5 P2 12:59 Mark Scheifele scored on a wrist shot from 36 feetShooting · 5% chance +15% WPG –
6 P2 3:38 Owen Tippett scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 6% chance +16% PHI –
7 P2 2:17 Morgan Barron scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% WPG –
8 P3 10:20 Mark Scheifele scored on a slap shot from 24 feetShooting · 16% chance +3% WPG –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 64% · Flyers 36%

Final margin
Jets by 3
Luck in goals
2.6 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Jets 39% · Flyers 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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