luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 13, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Mammoth, Jan 13, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Maple Leafs 6–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 16:38 left): Michael Carcone scored on a slap shot from 33 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Utah Mammoth 6

January 13, 2026 · Delta Center

Luck index +21 Mammoth about even · −21 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 2, Mammoth win 8.

  1. 1 TOR 4 UTA 2
  2. 2 TOR 4 UTA 3
  3. 3 TOR 4 UTA 5
  4. 4 TOR 3 UTA 5
  5. 5 TOR 3 UTA 6
  6. 6 TOR 2 UTA 5
  7. 7 TOR 3 UTA 7
  8. 8 TOR 0 UTA 5
  9. 9 TOR 2 UTA 8
  10. 10 TOR 0 UTA 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 21% of them, Mammoth 79%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+5.2%
Maple Leafs by 24.3%
Maple Leafs by 111.9%
Mammoth by 111.8%
Mammoth by 29.3%
Mammoth by 3+57.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Mammoth: the final margin was Mammoth by 5, without the luck Mammoth by 3.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs3612.63−1.63
Mammoth6965.25+0.75

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:09 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (William Nylander): 2 minutes on the power play +3% UTA
P1 12:23 Hooking on the Mammoth (JJ Peterka): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TOR
P1 6:47 Roughing on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 4:30 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Simon Benoit): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 10:16 Hooking on the Mammoth (Jack McBain): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TOR

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:38 Michael Carcone scored on a slap shot from 33 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% UTA –
2 P1 10:31 William Nylander’s snap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 31% chance +5% UTA –
3 P1 6:47 Roughing on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% TOR –
4 P1 5:33 Easton Cowan’s snap shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance +4% UTA –
5 P1 4:30 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Simon Benoit): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% UTA –
6 P2 18:09 John Tavares’s snap shot from 19 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +4% UTA –
7 P2 14:34 Dylan Guenther scored on a snap shot from 38 feetShooting · 3% chance +14% UTA –
8 P2 13:16 Dylan Guenther scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 13% chance +7% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 3% · Mammoth 97%

Final margin
Mammoth by 5
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Mammoth
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 3.2
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 21% · Mammoth 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 15 2025-26 games · Maple Leafs · Mammoth

More from week 15, 2025-26

Every game of week 15, 2025-26