luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 16, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Predators at Avalanche, Jan 16, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Predators beat the Avalanche 7–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Predators win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 37 points of win probability to the Predators.

The biggest swing (P2, 6:59 left): Ryan O'Reilly scored on a wrist shot from 10 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Predators.

Final

Nashville Predators 7
Colorado Avalanche 3

January 16, 2026 · Ball Arena

Luck index +57 Predators lucky · −57 Avalanche

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Predators win 4, Avalanche win 6.

  1. 1 NSH 4 COL 1
  2. 2 NSH 3 COL 1
  3. 3 NSH 2 COL 1
  4. 4 NSH 3 COL 2
  5. 5 NSH 1 COL 2
  6. 6 NSH 1 COL 2
  7. 7 NSH 2 COL 4
  8. 8 NSH 2 COL 4
  9. 9 NSH 5 COL 8
  10. 10 NSH 3 COL 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.3 replays ended

Predators win 43% of them, Avalanche 57%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Predators by 3+11.9%
Predators by 28.7%
Predators by 122.1%
Avalanche by 122.3%
Avalanche by 211.5%
Avalanche by 3+23.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 goals to the Predators: the final margin was Predators by 4, without the luck Predators by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Predators3652.05+2.95
Avalanche5332.84+0.16

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 6:38 Interference on the Predators (Erik Haula): 2 minutes on the power play +5% COL
P3 6:05 Interference on the Avalanche (Zakhar Bardakov): 2 minutes on the power play +6% NSH
P3 2:29 Slashing on the Predators (Cole Smith): 2 minutes on the power play 0% COL

When it happened

Avalanche’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Avalanche were ahead in it, below while the Predators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:30 Ryan O'Reilly scored on a backhand shot from 4 feetShooting · 22% chance +12% NSH –
2 P1 18:36 Brock Nelson scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 16% chance +13% COL –
3 P1 12:28 Ryan O'Reilly scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 2% chance +16% NSH –
4 P1 8:44 Brock Nelson scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 17% chance +15% COL –
5 P2 6:59 Ryan O'Reilly scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +20% NSH –
6 P2 1:56 Michael Bunting scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 6% chance +16% NSH –
7 P3 18:51 Martin Necas scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 11% chance +15% COL –
8 P3 4:47 Filip Forsberg scored on a wrist shot from 38 feetShooting · 5% chance +10% NSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Predators 80% · Avalanche 20%

Final margin
Predators by 4
Luck in goals
2.4 for the Predators
Luck-adjusted margin
Predators by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Predators 43% · Avalanche 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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