luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 13, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Oilers at Predators, Jan 13, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Predators beat the Oilers 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Predators win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Predators.

The biggest swing (OT): the Predators won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Predators.

Final (OT)

Edmonton Oilers 3
Nashville Predators 4

January 13, 2026 · Bridgestone Arena

Luck index +56 Predators lucky · −56 Oilers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oilers win 6, Predators win 4.

  1. 1 EDM 5 NSH 1
  2. 2 EDM 3 NSH 0
  3. 3 EDM 4 NSH 2
  4. 4 EDM 3 NSH 2
  5. 5 EDM 3 NSH 2
  6. 6 EDM 2 NSH 1
  7. 7 EDM 5 NSH 6
  8. 8 EDM 2 NSH 3
  9. 9 EDM 2 NSH 4
  10. 10 EDM 1 NSH 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Oilers win 56% of them, Predators 44%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oilers by 3+23.3%
Oilers by 210.2%
Oilers by 122.1%
Predators by 120.9%
Predators by 29.5%
Predators by 3+14.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 goals to the Predators: the final margin was Predators by 1, without the luck Oilers by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Oilers4233.21−0.21
Predators3832.20+0.80

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 8:42 Tripping on the Predators (Filip Forsberg): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P1 3:10 Tripping on the Predators (Justin Barron): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P2 19:02 Slashing on the Oilers (Kasperi Kapanen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P2 7:45 Tripping on the Predators (Nick Blankenburg): 2 minutes on the power play +5% EDM
P3 9:12 Holding the stick on the Oilers (Andrew Mangiapane): 2 minutes on the power play +8% NSH
P3 8:52 Slashing on the Predators (Filip Forsberg): 2 minutes on the power play +8% EDM
P3 3:12 Tripping on the Oilers (Mattias Janmark): 2 minutes on the power play +9% NSH

When it happened

Predators’ chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Predators were ahead in it, below while the Oilers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:15 Steven Stamkos scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 10% chance +14% NSH –
2 P1 2:54 Zach Hyman scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 21% chance +14% EDM –
3 P2 16:57 Erik Haula scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 9% chance +17% NSH –
4 P2 12:40 Leon Draisaitl scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 11% chance +18% EDM –
5 P2 6:48 Zach Hyman scored on a poke shot from 2 feetShooting · 54% chance +11% EDM –
6 P2 6:10 Roman Josi scored on a slap shot from 50 feetShooting · 3% chance +22% NSH –
7 P3 3:12 Tripping on the Oilers (Mattias Janmark): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +9% NSH –
8 OT The Predators won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% NSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oilers 68% · Predators 32%

Final margin
Predators by 1
Luck in goals
1.7 for the Predators
Luck-adjusted margin
Oilers by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Oilers 56% · Predators 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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