luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 15, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flames at Blackhawks, Jan 15, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flames beat the Blackhawks 3–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flames win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Flames.

The biggest swing (P1, 13:55 left): Mikael Backlund scored on a wrist shot from 10 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Flames.

Final

Calgary Flames 3
Chicago Blackhawks 1

January 15, 2026 · United Center

Luck index +53 Flames lucky · −53 Blackhawks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flames win 5, Blackhawks win 5.

  1. 1 CGY 3 CHI 0
  2. 2 CGY 4 CHI 2
  3. 3 CGY 3 CHI 2
  4. 4 CGY 2 CHI 1
  5. 5 CGY 2 CHI 1
  6. 6 CGY 2 CHI 3
  7. 7 CGY 0 CHI 1
  8. 8 CGY 0 CHI 2
  9. 9 CGY 0 CHI 3
  10. 10 CGY 1 CHI 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Flames win 47% of them, Blackhawks 53%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flames by 3+12.8%
Flames by 29.8%
Flames by 124.1%
Blackhawks by 125.7%
Blackhawks by 211.2%
Blackhawks by 3+16.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 goals to the Flames: the final margin was Flames by 2, without the luck Flames by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flames3121.81+0.19
Blackhawks3511.98−0.98

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:56 Interference on the Blackhawks (Matt Grzelcyk): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CGY
P1 14:45 Tripping on the Flames (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P1 9:26 High sticking on the Flames (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P2 13:37 Tripping on the Flames (Devin Cooley): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P2 8:51 Hooking on the Flames (Joel Hanley): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P2 6:44 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Oliver Moore): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY
P2 1:30 Roughing on the Blackhawks (Ryan Donato): 4 minutes on the power play +10% CGY
P2 0:40 Interference goalkeeper on the Flames (Connor Zary): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CHI

When it happened

Blackhawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blackhawks were ahead in it, below while the Flames were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:22 Nick Foligno scored on a wrist shot from 27 feetShooting · 8% chance +14% CHI –
2 P1 16:46 Yegor Sharangovich scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 23% chance +12% CGY –
3 P1 13:55 Mikael Backlund scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% CGY –
4 P2 8:51 Hooking on the Flames (Joel Hanley): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CHI –
5 P2 6:44 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Oliver Moore): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CGY –
6 P2 5:58 Ryan Greene between legs, 15 ft: above crossbar (19% chance)Shooting +4% CGY –
7 P2 1:30 Roughing on the Blackhawks (Ryan Donato): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +10% CGY –
8 P2 0:40 Interference goalkeeper on the Flames (Connor Zary): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flames 66% · Blackhawks 34%

Final margin
Flames by 2
Luck in goals
1.4 for the Flames
Luck-adjusted margin
Flames by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Flames 47% · Blackhawks 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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