2025-26 NHL season · one-goal games · final

NHL one-goal game records, 2025-26

The Islanders went 27–16 in one-goal games; replayed with the way both teams played, they win 19.0 of those 43, the most close-game luck in the league. The Golden Knights went 16–27, from play worth 24.0 wins.

League-wide: home teams won 207 of 414 overtimes and 119 of 238 shootouts. The Ducks have done best after regulation: 9–6 in overtime, 8–0 in the shootout. Regular season.

Team	One-goal games	Record	Replay wins	Luck	Overtime	Shootout	After regulation
Islanders	43	27–16	19.0	+8.0	10–0	4–5	+4.5
Ducks	36	24–12	17.8	+6.2	9–6	8–0	+5.5
Sharks	35	22–13	16.5	+5.5	10–6	2–2	+2.0
Panthers	31	21–10	16.0	+5.0	3–2	5–2	+2.0
Devils	31	20–11	15.1	+4.9	9–2	4–1	+5.0
Canadiens	39	23–16	18.9	+4.1	10–5	4–5	+2.0
Hurricanes	35	24–11	19.9	+4.1	9–3	5–4	+3.5
Stars	46	28–18	24.6	+3.4	6–8	6–4	0.0
Bruins	38	20–18	17.1	+2.9	8–7	4–3	+1.0
Wild	37	20–17	18.1	+1.9	11–7	4–5	+1.5
Predators	38	20–18	18.2	+1.8	5–8	5–2	0.0
Sabres	27	15–12	13.4	+1.6	3–8	5–1	−0.5
Red Wings	33	18–15	16.5	+1.5	9–6	2–4	+0.5
Canucks	32	15–17	14.1	+0.9	4–6	6–2	+1.0
Flames	29	14–15	13.7	+0.3	3–6	4–3	−1.0
Flyers	34	17–17	16.8	+0.2	6–8	10–4	+2.0
Maple Leafs	32	14–18	14.0	0.0	8–10	1–4	−2.5
Kraken	29	13–16	13.4	−0.4	6–5	2–6	−1.5
Mammoth	33	16–17	17.0	−1.0	10–6	0–0	+2.0
Blues	39	18–21	19.3	−1.3	3–8	1–4	−4.0
Lightning	31	15–16	16.9	−1.9	6–4	4–2	+2.0
Capitals	30	13–17	15.2	−2.2	4–3	2–6	−1.5
Blackhawks	35	13–22	15.3	−2.3	4–9	3–5	−3.5
Kings	47	21–26	23.8	−2.8	8–11	5–9	−3.5
Avalanche	29	14–15	17.1	−3.1	3–5	4–6	−2.0
Jets	40	16–24	20.1	−4.1	5–8	2–4	−2.5
Senators	37	16–21	20.3	−4.3	3–10	3–1	−2.5
Oilers	35	13–22	17.3	−4.3	9–7	0–4	−1.0
Blue Jackets	43	18–25	22.5	−4.5	5–10	7–2	0.0
Rangers	32	11–21	16.3	−5.3	6–8	3–1	0.0
Penguins	35	12–23	18.6	−6.6	4–6	3–10	−4.5
Golden Knights	43	16–27	24.0	−8.0	8–9	1–8	−4.0

Replay wins: in each one-goal game, how often the team wins it replayed with the same day’s form, added up. Luck: one-goal wins minus replay wins. After regulation: overtime and shootout wins above half of those games.

Questions

Which NHL team is luckiest in one-goal games in 2025-26?

The New York Islanders: 27–16 in one-goal games, from play worth 19.0 wins in those games (+8.0). The unluckiest: the Vegas Golden Knights, 16–27 from play worth 24.0.

Is winning overtime and shootouts a skill?

Barely. Three-on-three overtime and the shootout are as close to coin flips as hockey gets: since 2018-19 the home team has won 51% of overtimes and 49% of shootouts, and a team’s record in them in one half of a season says almost nothing about the other half. That is why the luck-adjusted standings replay them at those odds.

What counts as a one-goal game?

A game decided by a single goal, overtime and shootout wins included (the shootout winner is awarded a goal). Empty-net goals often turn a one-goal game into a two-goal one; those count as played.

2025-26 luck rankings · Standings adjusted for luck · How overtime is replayed