luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 13, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Stars at Maple Leafs, Apr 13, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Stars beat the Maple Leafs 6–5, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Maple Leafs had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

The game turned on a luck play (P3, 10:22 left): Arttu Hyry scored on a shot from 15 feet, worth 26 points of win probability to the Stars. The biggest single swing (P3, 5:08 left): Mavrik Bourque scored on a wrist shot from 6 feet.

Final

Dallas Stars 6
Toronto Maple Leafs 5

April 13, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena

Luck index +37 Stars lucky · −37 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Stars win 6, Maple Leafs win 4.

  1. 1 DAL 8 TOR 3
  2. 2 DAL 6 TOR 3
  3. 3 DAL 5 TOR 2
  4. 4 DAL 5 TOR 3
  5. 5 DAL 2 TOR 1
  6. 6 DAL 4 TOR 3
  7. 7 DAL 3 TOR 4
  8. 8 DAL 3 TOR 4
  9. 9 DAL 1 TOR 3
  10. 10 DAL 2 TOR 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Stars win 63% of them, Maple Leafs 37%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Stars by 3+32.0%
Stars by 211.7%
Stars by 119.6%
Maple Leafs by 119.5%
Maple Leafs by 26.8%
Maple Leafs by 3+10.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 goals to the Maple Leafs: the final margin was Stars by 1, without the luck Stars by 1.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Stars4763.54+2.46
Maple Leafs4052.19+2.81

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:51 High sticking on the Stars (Arttu Hyry): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 11:15 Interference on the Maple Leafs (Morgan Rielly): 2 minutes on the power play +3% DAL
P2 14:21 Tripping on the Stars (Jamie Benn): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 1:59 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Ryan Tverberg): 2 minutes on the power play +6% DAL
P3 13:23 Holding on the Maple Leafs (Steven Lorentz): 2 minutes on the power play +2% DAL

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Stars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:46 John Tavares scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 18% chance +13% TOR –
2 P1 5:25 Jacob Quillan scored on a deflected shot from 7 feetShooting · 11% chance +12% TOR –
3 P2 14:29 Mavrik Bourque scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 15% chance +12% DAL –
4 P2 10:31 Jason Robertson scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 12% chance +18% DAL –
5 P3 18:20 Max Domi scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 9% chance +23% TOR –
6 P3 15:41 Nicholas Robertson scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% TOR –
7 P3 10:22 The game turned hereArttu Hyry scored on a shot from 15 feetShooting · 18% chance +26% DAL –
8 P3 5:08 Mavrik Bourque scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 19% chance +31% DAL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Stars 72% · Maple Leafs 28%

Final margin
Stars by 1
Luck in goals
0.3 for the Maple Leafs
Luck-adjusted margin
Stars by 1.3
Replay with same day's form
Stars 63% · Maple Leafs 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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