luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 NHL season · Apr 13, 2026 – Apr 16, 2026

NHL week 28: who deserved to win

6 of 31 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Panthers beat the Rangers 3–2 in a game they win 25% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 31 games.

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 28 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Panthers W 3–2 vs Rangers Apr 13, 2026 25% +75
2 Flames W 3–1 vs Kings Apr 16, 2026 29% +71
3 Canucks W 4–3 OT vs Kings Apr 14, 2026 30% +70
4 Wild W 3–2 vs Ducks Apr 14, 2026 33% +67
5 Flyers W 4–2 vs Canadiens Apr 14, 2026 36% +64
6 Rangers W 4–2 @ Lightning Apr 15, 2026 39% +61
7 Sharks W 3–2 @ Predators Apr 13, 2026 40% +60
8 Blues W 5–3 @ Mammoth Apr 16, 2026 47% +53
9 Blues W 6–3 vs Wild Apr 13, 2026 48% +52
10 Stars W 4–3 SO @ Sabres Apr 15, 2026 52% +48
11 Lightning W 4–3 OT vs Red Wings Apr 13, 2026 53% +47
12 Capitals W 2–1 @ Blue Jackets Apr 14, 2026 54% +46
13 Hurricanes W 2–1 @ Islanders Apr 14, 2026 54% +46
14 Panthers W 8–1 vs Red Wings Apr 15, 2026 57% +43
15 Sabres W 5–1 @ Blackhawks Apr 13, 2026 59% +41
16 Sharks W 6–1 @ Jets Apr 16, 2026 59% +41
17 Stars W 6–5 @ Maple Leafs Apr 13, 2026 63% +37
18 Avalanche W 3–1 @ Flames Apr 14, 2026 64% +36
19 Bruins W 4–0 vs Devils Apr 14, 2026 64% +36
20 Blues W 7–5 vs Penguins Apr 14, 2026 66% +34
21 Avalanche W 2–1 SO @ Oilers Apr 13, 2026 67% +33
22 Kings W 5–3 @ Kraken Apr 13, 2026 68% +32
23 Mammoth W 5–3 vs Jets Apr 14, 2026 68% +32
24 Flyers W 3–2 SO vs Hurricanes Apr 13, 2026 68% +32
25 Golden Knights W 4–1 vs Kraken Apr 15, 2026 71% +29
26 Golden Knights W 6–2 vs Jets Apr 13, 2026 71% +29
27 Blackhawks W 5–2 vs Sharks Apr 15, 2026 72% +28
28 Senators W 3–1 vs Maple Leafs Apr 15, 2026 72% +28
29 Oilers W 6–1 vs Canucks Apr 16, 2026 79% +21
30 Ducks W 5–4 @ Predators Apr 16, 2026 79% +21
31 Avalanche W 2–0 vs Kraken Apr 16, 2026 81% +19
32 Kraken L 0–2 @ Avalanche Apr 16, 2026 19% −19
33 Predators L 4–5 vs Ducks Apr 16, 2026 21% −21
34 Canucks L 1–6 @ Oilers Apr 16, 2026 21% −21
35 Maple Leafs L 1–3 @ Senators Apr 15, 2026 28% −28
36 Sharks L 2–5 @ Blackhawks Apr 15, 2026 28% −28
37 Jets L 2–6 @ Golden Knights Apr 13, 2026 29% −29
38 Kraken L 1–4 @ Golden Knights Apr 15, 2026 29% −29
39 Hurricanes L 2–3 SO @ Flyers Apr 13, 2026 32% −32
40 Jets L 3–5 @ Mammoth Apr 14, 2026 32% −32
41 Kraken L 3–5 vs Kings Apr 13, 2026 32% −32
42 Oilers L 1–2 SO vs Avalanche Apr 13, 2026 33% −33
43 Penguins L 5–7 @ Blues Apr 14, 2026 34% −34
44 Devils L 0–4 @ Bruins Apr 14, 2026 36% −36
45 Flames L 1–3 vs Avalanche Apr 14, 2026 36% −36
46 Maple Leafs L 5–6 vs Stars Apr 13, 2026 37% −37
47 Jets L 1–6 vs Sharks Apr 16, 2026 41% −41
48 Blackhawks L 1–5 vs Sabres Apr 13, 2026 41% −41
49 Red Wings L 1–8 @ Panthers Apr 15, 2026 43% −43
50 Islanders L 1–2 vs Hurricanes Apr 14, 2026 46% −46
51 Blue Jackets L 1–2 vs Capitals Apr 14, 2026 46% −46
52 Red Wings L 3–4 OT @ Lightning Apr 13, 2026 47% −47
53 Sabres L 3–4 SO vs Stars Apr 15, 2026 48% −48
54 Wild L 3–6 @ Blues Apr 13, 2026 52% −52
55 Mammoth L 3–5 vs Blues Apr 16, 2026 53% −53
56 Predators L 2–3 vs Sharks Apr 13, 2026 60% −60
57 Lightning L 2–4 vs Rangers Apr 15, 2026 61% −61
58 Canadiens L 2–4 @ Flyers Apr 14, 2026 64% −64
59 Ducks L 2–3 @ Wild Apr 14, 2026 67% −67
60 Kings L 3–4 OT @ Canucks Apr 14, 2026 70% −70
61 Kings L 1–3 @ Flames Apr 16, 2026 71% −71
62 Rangers L 2–3 @ Panthers Apr 13, 2026 75% −75