luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 16, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kraken at Avalanche, Apr 16, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Avalanche beat the Kraken 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Avalanche win 8 of 10. The Kraken had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 9 points of win probability to the Kraken.

The biggest swing (P2, 2:22 left): Nick Blankenburg scored on a snap shot from 12 feet, worth 27 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

Final

Seattle Kraken 0
Colorado Avalanche 2

April 16, 2026 · Ball Arena

Luck index +19 Avalanche about even · −19 Kraken

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kraken win 2, Avalanche win 8.

  1. 1 SEA 2 COL 1
  2. 2 SEA 3 COL 2
  3. 3 SEA 1 COL 2
  4. 4 SEA 1 COL 2
  5. 5 SEA 0 COL 2
  6. 6 SEA 1 COL 4
  7. 7 SEA 0 COL 3
  8. 8 SEA 0 COL 3
  9. 9 SEA 0 COL 4
  10. 10 SEA 0 COL 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Kraken win 19% of them, Avalanche 81%. The line is what actually happened: Avalanche by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kraken by 3+1.4%
Kraken by 22.1%
Kraken by 115.8%
Avalanche by 119.4%
Avalanche by 215.4%
Avalanche by 3+45.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Avalanche by 2, without the luck Avalanche by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kraken3001.11−1.11
Avalanche5522.88−0.88

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 4:19 High sticking on the Kraken (Ryker Evans): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P2 19:32 Tripping on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P2 2:22 Roughing on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P3 18:51 Hooking on the Avalanche (Brent Burns): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SEA
P3 14:24 Hooking on the Kraken (Berkly Catton): 2 minutes on the power play +5% COL
P3 12:46 Interference on the Avalanche (Sam Malinski): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SEA

When it happened

Avalanche’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Avalanche were ahead in it, below while the Kraken were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 4:23 Cale Makar’s snap shot from 19 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance +3% SEA –
2 P1 4:19 High sticking on the Kraken (Ryker Evans): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% COL –
3 P2 19:32 Tripping on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% COL –
4 P2 2:22 Nick Blankenburg scored on a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 7% chanceRoughing on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +27% COL –
5 P3 18:51 Hooking on the Avalanche (Brent Burns): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% SEA –
6 P3 14:24 Hooking on the Kraken (Berkly Catton): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% COL –
7 P3 12:46 Interference on the Avalanche (Sam Malinski): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% SEA –
8 P3 7:41 Parker Kelly scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 10% chance +11% COL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kraken 4% · Avalanche 96%

Final margin
Avalanche by 2
Luck in goals
0.5 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Avalanche by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Kraken 19% · Avalanche 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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