luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 16, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kings at Flames, Apr 16, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flames beat the Kings 3–1, but the replays lean toward the Kings: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 48 points of win probability to the Flames.

The biggest swing (P3, 13:52 left): Zayne Parekh scored on a snap shot from 35 feet, worth 27 points of win probability to the Flames.

Final

Los Angeles Kings 1
Calgary Flames 3

April 16, 2026 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +71 Flames very lucky · −71 Kings

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kings win 7, Flames win 3.

  1. 1 LAK 5 CGY 0
  2. 2 LAK 5 CGY 1
  3. 3 LAK 6 CGY 3
  4. 4 LAK 4 CGY 1
  5. 5 LAK 3 CGY 1
  6. 6 LAK 3 CGY 2
  7. 7 LAK 1 CGY 0
  8. 8 LAK 2 CGY 3
  9. 9 LAK 1 CGY 2
  10. 10 LAK 1 CGY 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Kings win 71% of them, Flames 29%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kings by 3+40.1%
Kings by 212.3%
Kings by 118.6%
Flames by 118.7%
Flames by 25.1%
Flames by 3+5.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 goals to the Flames: the final margin was Flames by 2, without the luck Kings by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kings4413.38−2.38
Flames2921.47+0.53

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:32 High sticking on the Kings (Drew Doughty): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P1 14:34 Interference on the Flames (Aydar Suniev): 2 minutes on the power play +4% LAK
P2 16:23 Illegal check to head on the Kings (Samuel Helenius): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CGY
P2 2:48 Tripping on the Flames (Joel Farabee): 2 minutes on the power play +6% LAK
P3 17:17 Tripping on the Kings (Brian Dumoulin): 2 minutes on the power play +6% CGY

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Kings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 16:23 Illegal check to head on the Kings (Samuel Helenius): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% CGY –
2 P2 14:39 Morgan Frost scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance +17% CGY –
3 P2 13:17 Quinton Byfield scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 18% chance +17% LAK –
4 P2 2:48 Tripping on the Flames (Joel Farabee): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% LAK –
5 P3 17:17 Tripping on the Kings (Brian Dumoulin): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% CGY –
6 P3 13:52 Zayne Parekh scored on a snap shot from 35 feetShooting · 4% chance +27% CGY –
7 P3 6:32 Adrian Kempe missed the net with a slap shot from 31 feetShooting · 13% chance +5% CGY –
8 P3 4:51 Quinton Byfield’s snap shot from 22 feet was savedShooting · 11% chance +4% CGY –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kings 69% · Flames 31%

Final margin
Flames by 2
Luck in goals
2.9 for the Flames
Luck-adjusted margin
Kings by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Kings 71% · Flames 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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