luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 15, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sharks at Blackhawks, Apr 15, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Blackhawks beat the Sharks 5–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Sharks had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 11 points of win probability to the Sharks.

The biggest swing (P3, 16:09 left): Louis Crevier scored on a snap shot from 12 feet, worth 24 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.

Final

San Jose Sharks 2
Chicago Blackhawks 5

April 15, 2026 · United Center

Luck index +28 Blackhawks lucky · −28 Sharks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sharks win 3, Blackhawks win 7.

  1. 1 SJS 4 CHI 1
  2. 2 SJS 2 CHI 1
  3. 3 SJS 2 CHI 1
  4. 4 SJS 1 CHI 2
  5. 5 SJS 0 CHI 1
  6. 6 SJS 2 CHI 4
  7. 7 SJS 0 CHI 3
  8. 8 SJS 1 CHI 4
  9. 9 SJS 0 CHI 4
  10. 10 SJS 0 CHI 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Sharks win 28% of them, Blackhawks 72%. The line is what actually happened: Blackhawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sharks by 3+4.8%
Sharks by 25.9%
Sharks by 117.8%
Blackhawks by 121.5%
Blackhawks by 213.4%
Blackhawks by 3+36.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 goals to the Blackhawks: the final margin was Blackhawks by 3, without the luck Blackhawks by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sharks2721.40+0.60
Blackhawks3753.06+1.94

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 10:29 Hooking on the Sharks (Igor Chernyshov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P1 1:11 Cross checking on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P2 16:14 Delaying game puck over glass on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P2 12:00 Kneeing on the Blackhawks (Ryan Donato): 2 minutes on the power play +3% SJS
P2 9:46 Holding on the Sharks (Luca Cagnoni): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CHI
P2 2:44 Tripping on the Sharks (Shakir Mukhamadullin): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CHI
P3 8:01 Slashing on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SJS

When it happened

Blackhawks’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blackhawks were ahead in it, below while the Sharks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:51 Mario Ferraro scored on a wrist shot from 37 feetShooting · 3% chance +16% SJS –
2 P2 16:14 Delaying game puck over glass on the Blackhawks (Connor Bedard): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% SJS –
3 P2 14:43 Michael Misa scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 6% chance +15% SJS –
4 P2 0:30 Sam Rinzel scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 2% chance +16% CHI –
5 P3 16:09 Louis Crevier scored on a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 16% chance +24% CHI –
6 P3 11:33 Ryan Donato’s snap shot from 24 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +5% SJS –
7 P3 11:25 Ryan Greene scored on a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 24% chance +23% CHI –
8 P3 9:28 Louis Crevier scored on a slap shot from 64 feetShooting · 2% chance +12% CHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sharks 10% · Blackhawks 90%

Final margin
Blackhawks by 3
Luck in goals
1.0 for the Blackhawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Blackhawks by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Sharks 28% · Blackhawks 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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