2025-26 regular season · April 16, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blues at Mammoth, Apr 16, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Blues beat the Mammoth 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blues win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 36 points of win probability to the Blues.
The game turned on a luck play (P2, 8:53 left): Robert Thomas scored on a tip from 13 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Blues. The biggest single swing (P3, 2:57 left): Logan Mailloux scored on a backhand shot from 21 feet.
Final
 St. Louis Blues | 5 |
|---|---|
 Utah Mammoth | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Blues lucky · −53 Mammoth
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blues win 5, Mammoth win 5.
- 1 STL 3 UTA 0
- 2 STL 3 UTA 1
- 3 STL 6 UTA 4
- 4 STL 2 UTA 1
- 5 STL 1 UTA 0
- 6 STL 2 UTA 3
- 7 STL 2 UTA 3
- 8 STL 2 UTA 4
- 9 STL 1 UTA 4
- 10 STL 0 UTA 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Blues win 47% of them, Mammoth 53%. The line is what actually happened: Blues by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blues by 3+ | 14.9% |
| Blues by 2 | 9.8% |
| Blues by 1 | 22.5% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 23.7% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 9.9% |
| Mammoth by 3+ | 19.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blues | 37 | 4 | 2.24 | +1.76 |
 Mammoth | 42 | 3 | 2.42 | +0.58 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 19:47 | Slashing on the Mammoth (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% STL |
| P2 18:34 | A Mammoth goal came off the board on review (goal interference) | +16% STL |
When it happened
Mammoth’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 16:15 | Pavel Buchnevich scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 16% chance | +14% STL | – |
| 2 | P1 3:05 | Michael Carcone scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 8% chance | +17% UTA | – |
| 3 | P2 19:15 | Lawson Crouse scored on a tip from 11 feetShooting · 5% chance | +18% UTA | – |
| 4 | P2 18:34 | A Mammoth goal came off the board on review (goal interference)Overturned goals | +16% STL | – |
| 5 | P2 11:46 | Robert Thomas scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 15% chance | +17% STL | – |
| 6 | P2 8:53 | The game turned hereRobert Thomas scored on a tip from 13 feetShooting · 8% chance | +20% STL | – |
| 7 | P2 1:08 | Kailer Yamamoto scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 8% chance | +23% UTA | – |
| 8 | P3 2:57 | Logan Mailloux scored on a backhand shot from 21 feetShooting · 9% chance | +38% STL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blues 91% · Mammoth 9%
- Final margin
- Blues by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for the Mammoth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Blues by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Blues 47% · Mammoth 53% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 28, 2025-26
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