2025-26 regular season · April 13, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Jets at Golden Knights, Apr 13, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Golden Knights beat the Jets 6–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P2, 12:22 left): Mark Stone scored on a snap shot from 24 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Golden Knights.
Final
 Winnipeg Jets | 2 |
|---|---|
 Vegas Golden Knights | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Golden Knights lucky · −29 Jets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 3, Golden Knights win 7.
- 1 WPG 3 VGK 0
- 2 WPG 6 VGK 5
- 3 WPG 4 VGK 3
- 4 WPG 1 VGK 2
- 5 WPG 3 VGK 4
- 6 WPG 3 VGK 5
- 7 WPG 1 VGK 4
- 8 WPG 2 VGK 5
- 9 WPG 2 VGK 6
- 10 WPG 0 VGK 6
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Jets win 29% of them, Golden Knights 71%. The line is what actually happened: Golden Knights by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 3+ | 5.9% |
| Jets by 2 | 5.5% |
| Jets by 1 | 17.3% |
| Golden Knights by 1 | 18.0% |
| Golden Knights by 2 | 11.8% |
| Golden Knights by 3+ | 41.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jets | 32 | 2 | 1.91 | +0.09 |
 Golden Knights | 53 | 6 | 3.58 | +2.42 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:23 | Holding on the Jets (Adam Lowry): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VGK |
| P1 1:05 | Slashing on the Jets (Gabriel Vilardi): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VGK |
| P2 13:39 | Tripping on the Golden Knights (Nic Dowd): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% WPG |
| P2 10:54 | Interference on the Golden Knights (Shea Theodore): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P2 8:17 | Roughing on the Golden Knights (Ivan Barbashev): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P2 6:33 | High sticking on the Jets (Nino Niederreiter): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VGK |
| P2 5:24 | Hooking on the Golden Knights (Mitch Marner): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P2 3:15 | Hooking on the Jets (Jonathan Toews): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VGK |
| P3 19:16 | Roughing on the Golden Knights (Brett Howden): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% WPG |
| P3 14:55 | High sticking double minor on the Jets (Mark Scheifele): 4 minutes on the power play | +4% VGK |
| P3 9:50 | Tripping on the Jets (Dylan Samberg): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% VGK |
When it happened
Golden Knights’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 13:39 | Tripping on the Golden Knights (Nic Dowd): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% WPG | – |
| 2 | P2 12:22 | Mark Stone scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 16% chance | +17% VGK | – |
| 3 | P2 3:15 | Hooking on the Jets (Jonathan Toews): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% VGK | – |
| 4 | P2 1:06 | Reilly Smith scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 8% chance | +14% VGK | – |
| 5 | P3 19:29 | Ivan Barbashev scored on a snap shot from 14 feetShooting · 12% chance | +5% VGK | – |
| 6 | P3 17:26 | Gabriel Vilardi scored on a tip from 3 feetShooting · 18% chance | +4% WPG | – |
| 7 | P3 16:23 | Rasmus Andersson scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 3% chance | +5% VGK | – |
| 8 | P3 15:19 | Mark Scheifele scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 5% chance | +5% WPG | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 12% · Golden Knights 88%
- Final margin
- Golden Knights by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for the Golden Knights
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Golden Knights by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 29% · Golden Knights 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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