2025-26 regular season · April 13, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Wild at Blues, Apr 13, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Blues beat the Wild 6–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blues win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 32 points of win probability to the Blues.
The biggest swing (P2, 7:59 left): A Blues goal came off the board on review (off side), worth 22 points of win probability to the Wild.
Final
 Minnesota Wild | 3 |
|---|---|
 St. Louis Blues | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Blues lucky · −52 Wild
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wild win 5, Blues win 5.
- 1 MIN 4 STL 0
- 2 MIN 6 STL 3
- 3 MIN 3 STL 1
- 4 MIN 5 STL 4
- 5 MIN 4 STL 3
- 6 MIN 3 STL 4
- 7 MIN 2 STL 3
- 8 MIN 2 STL 4
- 9 MIN 3 STL 6
- 10 MIN 2 STL 6
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Wild win 52% of them, Blues 48%. The line is what actually happened: Blues by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wild by 3+ | 23.9% |
| Wild by 2 | 9.9% |
| Wild by 1 | 18.2% |
| Blues by 1 | 19.9% |
| Blues by 2 | 8.8% |
| Blues by 3+ | 19.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wild | 45 | 3 | 3.65 | −0.65 |
 Blues | 35 | 5 | 3.22 | +1.78 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:09 | Hooking on the Wild (Robby Fabbri): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% STL |
| P1 7:23 | Too many men on the ice on the Blues (STL): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P1 2:00 | Boarding on the Blues (Colton Parayko): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P2 18:30 | Tripping on the Wild (Hunter Haight): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% STL |
| P2 14:15 | Hooking on the Wild (Nico Sturm): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% STL |
| P2 7:59 | A Blues goal came off the board on review (off side) | +22% MIN |
| P2 7:06 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Blues (Jimmy Snuggerud): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MIN |
| P3 19:06 | Tripping on the Blues (Jake Neighbours): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MIN |
| P3 15:43 | Hooking on the Wild (Danila Yurov): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% STL |
| P3 8:54 | Tripping on the Blues (Dylan Holloway): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% MIN |
When it happened
Blues’ chance of winning
As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:38 | Colton Parayko scored on a slap shot from 61 feetShooting · 2% chance | +15% STL | – |
| 2 | P1 5:14 | Nick Foligno scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 7% chance | +16% MIN | – |
| 3 | P1 0:47 | Danila Yurov scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 12% chance | +17% MIN | – |
| 4 | P2 18:01 | Michael McCarron scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 11% chance | +14% MIN | – |
| 5 | P2 15:56 | Otto Stenberg scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 16% chance | +13% STL | – |
| 6 | P2 15:29 | Pavel Buchnevich scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 22% chance | +16% STL | – |
| 7 | P2 7:59 | A Blues goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals | +22% MIN | – |
| 8 | P2 3:19 | Theo Lindstein scored on a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 10% chance | +21% STL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wild 29% · Blues 71%
- Final margin
- Blues by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for the Blues
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Blues by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Wild 52% · Blues 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 28, 2025-26
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