2025-26 regular season · April 16, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Ducks at Predators, Apr 16, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Ducks beat the Predators 5–4, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Predators had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 27 points of win probability to the Predators.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 15:43 left): Tristan Luneau scored on a wrist shot from 10 feet, worth 23 points of win probability to the Ducks. The biggest single swing (P3, 2:54 left): Troy Terry scored on a wrist shot from 6 feet.
Final
 Anaheim Ducks | 5 |
|---|---|
 Nashville Predators | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Ducks about even · −21 Predators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ducks win 8, Predators win 2.
- 1 ANA 8 NSH 1
- 2 ANA 6 NSH 1
- 3 ANA 6 NSH 2
- 4 ANA 7 NSH 3
- 5 ANA 3 NSH 0
- 6 ANA 5 NSH 2
- 7 ANA 5 NSH 3
- 8 ANA 5 NSH 4
- 9 ANA 4 NSH 5
- 10 ANA 2 NSH 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Ducks win 79% of them, Predators 21%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ducks by 3+ | 56.3% |
| Ducks by 2 | 9.1% |
| Ducks by 1 | 13.5% |
| Predators by 1 | 12.9% |
| Predators by 2 | 3.6% |
| Predators by 3+ | 4.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ducks | 62 | 5 | 4.64 | +0.36 |
 Predators | 30 | 4 | 1.99 | +2.01 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 5:13 | Holding on the Ducks (Cutter Gauthier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P2 19:28 | Hooking on the Predators (Brady Skjei): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% ANA |
| P2 13:45 | Tripping on the Predators (Reid Schaefer): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% ANA |
| P2 5:07 | Slashing on the Ducks (John Carlson): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
| P2 0:22 | Hooking on the Ducks (Jeffrey Viel): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
| P3 13:51 | Slashing on the Predators (Ryan Ufko): 2 minutes on the power play | +7% ANA |
| P3 9:02 | Tripping on the Predators (Fedor Svechkov): 2 minutes on the power play | +8% ANA |
| P3 3:57 | High sticking double minor on the Predators (Tyson Jost): 4 minutes on the power play | +18% ANA |
When it happened
Predators’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 4:05 | Filip Forsberg scored on a tip from 14 feetShooting · 11% chance | +16% NSH | – |
| 2 | P1 0:21 | Jackson LaCombe scored on a snap shot from 58 feetShooting · 2% chance | +18% ANA | – |
| 3 | P2 15:27 | Alex Killorn scored on a slap shot from 52 feetShooting · 2% chance | +20% ANA | – |
| 4 | P2 5:23 | Filip Forsberg scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 17% chance | +19% NSH | – |
| 5 | P2 4:37 | Steven Stamkos scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 16% chance | +19% NSH | – |
| 6 | P3 15:43 | The game turned hereTristan Luneau scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 16% chance | +23% ANA | – |
| 7 | P3 3:57 | High sticking double minor on the Predators (Tyson Jost): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +18% ANA | – |
| 8 | P3 2:54 | Troy Terry scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 15% chance | +36% ANA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ducks 86% · Predators 14%
- Final margin
- Ducks by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for the Predators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ducks by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Ducks 79% · Predators 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 28, 2025-26
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