Canadiens lucky 2 
Lightning unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 25% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Apr 18, 2026 – May 3, 2026
First round 2025-26: who deserved to win
5 of 45 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Canadiens beat the Lightning 2–1 in a game they win 25% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Canadiens lucky 2 Lightning unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 25% of replays 
Golden Knights unlucky 2 
Mammoth lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Mammoth win 30% of replays 
Penguins lucky 4 
Flyers unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Penguins win 37% of replays Flyers lucky 3 Penguins unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Flyers win 38% of replays Penguins unlucky 0 Flyers lucky 1 Replays favor loser · Flyers win 40% of replays 
Ducks 6 
Oilers 4 Coin flip · Ducks win 42% of replays Canadiens 2 Lightning 3 Coin flip · Lightning win 43% of replays 
Wild 2 
Stars 4 Coin flip · Stars win 44% of replays Wild 6 Stars 1 Coin flip · Wild win 44% of replays Mammoth 4 Golden Knights 5 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 45% of replays 
Hurricanes 4 
Senators 2 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 46% of replays Golden Knights 5 Mammoth 1 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 48% of replays 
Avalanche 5 
Kings 1 Coin flip · Avalanche win 48% of replays 
Bruins 4 
Sabres 2 Coin flip · Bruins win 49% of replays Penguins 2 Flyers 5 Coin flip · Flyers win 49% of replays Avalanche 4 Kings 2 Coin flip · Avalanche win 49% of replays Stars 2 Wild 3 Coin flip · Wild win 52% of replays Bruins 2 Sabres 1 Coin flip · Bruins win 53% of replays Lightning 2 Canadiens 3 Coin flip · Canadiens win 54% of replays Sabres 3 Bruins 1 Coin flip · Sabres win 54% of replays Canadiens 4 Lightning 3 Coin flip · Canadiens win 55% of replays Canadiens 3 Lightning 2 Coin flip · Canadiens win 55% of replays Stars 2 Wild 5 Coin flip · Wild win 56% of replays Lightning 1 Canadiens 0 Coin flip · Lightning win 57% of replays Wild 4 Stars 2 Coin flip · Wild win 57% of replays Oilers 2 Ducks 5 Coin flip · Ducks win 58% of replays Ducks 1 Oilers 4 Coin flip · Oilers win 59% of replays Mammoth 2 Golden Knights 4 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 60% of replays Bruins 3 Sabres 4 Replays agree · Sabres win 61% of replays Golden Knights 5 Mammoth 4 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 61% of replays Lightning 3 Canadiens 2 Replays agree · Lightning win 61% of replays Flyers 2 Penguins 3 Replays agree · Penguins win 62% of replays Oilers 3 Ducks 4 Replays agree · Ducks win 62% of replays Ducks 3 Oilers 4 Replays agree · Oilers win 63% of replays Senators 2 Hurricanes 3 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 63% of replays Oilers 4 Ducks 7 Replays agree · Ducks win 64% of replays Kings 1 Avalanche 2 Replays agree · Avalanche win 64% of replays Sabres 4 Bruins 1 Replays agree · Sabres win 65% of replays Flyers 3 Penguins 2 Replays agree · Flyers win 66% of replays Hurricanes 2 Senators 1 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 66% of replays Sabres 6 Bruins 1 Replays agree · Sabres win 71% of replays Mammoth 3 Golden Knights 2 Replays agree · Mammoth win 74% of replays Stars 4 Wild 3 Replays agree · Stars win 74% of replays Kings 1 Avalanche 2 Replays agree · Avalanche win 75% of replays Senators 0 Hurricanes 2 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 77% of replays First round luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canadiens | W 2–1 @ Lightning May 3, 2026 | 25% | +75 |
| 2 | Mammoth | W 4–2 vs Golden Knights Apr 25, 2026 | 30% | +70 |
| 3 | Penguins | W 4–2 @ Flyers Apr 26, 2026 | 37% | +63 |
| 4 | Flyers | W 3–0 @ Penguins Apr 20, 2026 | 38% | +62 |
| 5 | Flyers | W 1–0 OT vs Penguins Apr 29, 2026 | 40% | +60 |
| 6 | Ducks | W 6–4 @ Oilers Apr 23, 2026 | 42% | +58 |
| 7 | Lightning | W 3–2 OT vs Canadiens Apr 21, 2026 | 43% | +57 |
| 8 | Stars | W 4–2 vs Wild Apr 21, 2026 | 44% | +56 |
| 9 | Wild | W 6–1 @ Stars Apr 18, 2026 | 44% | +56 |
| 10 | Golden Knights | W 5–4 2OT vs Mammoth Apr 30, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 11 | Hurricanes | W 4–2 @ Senators Apr 25, 2026 | 46% | +54 |
| 12 | Golden Knights | W 5–1 @ Mammoth May 2, 2026 | 48% | +52 |
| 13 | Avalanche | W 5–1 @ Kings Apr 26, 2026 | 48% | +52 |
| 14 | Bruins | W 4–2 @ Sabres Apr 21, 2026 | 49% | +51 |
| 15 | Flyers | W 5–2 vs Penguins Apr 22, 2026 | 49% | +51 |
| 16 | Avalanche | W 4–2 @ Kings Apr 24, 2026 | 49% | +51 |
| 17 | Wild | W 3–2 OT vs Stars Apr 25, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 18 | Bruins | W 2–1 OT @ Sabres Apr 28, 2026 | 53% | +47 |
| 19 | Canadiens | W 3–2 OT vs Lightning Apr 24, 2026 | 54% | +46 |
| 20 | Sabres | W 3–1 @ Bruins Apr 23, 2026 | 54% | +46 |
| 21 | Canadiens | W 4–3 OT @ Lightning Apr 19, 2026 | 55% | +45 |
| 22 | Canadiens | W 3–2 @ Lightning Apr 29, 2026 | 55% | +45 |
| 23 | Wild | W 5–2 vs Stars Apr 30, 2026 | 56% | +44 |
| 24 | Lightning | W 1–0 OT @ Canadiens May 1, 2026 | 57% | +43 |
| 25 | Wild | W 4–2 @ Stars Apr 29, 2026 | 57% | +43 |
| 26 | Ducks | W 5–2 vs Oilers May 1, 2026 | 58% | +42 |
| 27 | Oilers | W 4–1 vs Ducks Apr 29, 2026 | 59% | +41 |
| 28 | Golden Knights | W 4–2 vs Mammoth Apr 20, 2026 | 60% | +40 |
| 29 | Sabres | W 4–3 vs Bruins Apr 19, 2026 | 61% | +39 |
| 30 | Golden Knights | W 5–4 OT @ Mammoth Apr 28, 2026 | 61% | +39 |
| 31 | Lightning | W 3–2 @ Canadiens Apr 26, 2026 | 61% | +39 |
| 32 | Penguins | W 3–2 vs Flyers Apr 27, 2026 | 62% | +38 |
| 33 | Ducks | W 4–3 OT vs Oilers Apr 27, 2026 | 62% | +38 |
| 34 | Oilers | W 4–3 vs Ducks Apr 21, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 35 | Hurricanes | W 3–2 OT vs Senators Apr 20, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 36 | Ducks | W 7–4 vs Oilers Apr 25, 2026 | 64% | +36 |
| 37 | Avalanche | W 2–1 vs Kings Apr 19, 2026 | 64% | +36 |
| 38 | Sabres | W 4–1 @ Bruins May 1, 2026 | 65% | +35 |
| 39 | Flyers | W 3–2 @ Penguins Apr 19, 2026 | 66% | +34 |
| 40 | Hurricanes | W 2–1 @ Senators Apr 23, 2026 | 66% | +34 |
| 41 | Sabres | W 6–1 @ Bruins Apr 26, 2026 | 71% | +29 |
| 42 | Mammoth | W 3–2 @ Golden Knights Apr 22, 2026 | 74% | +26 |
| 43 | Stars | W 4–3 2OT @ Wild Apr 23, 2026 | 74% | +26 |
| 44 | Avalanche | W 2–1 OT vs Kings Apr 22, 2026 | 75% | +25 |
| 45 | Hurricanes | W 2–0 vs Senators Apr 18, 2026 | 77% | +23 |
| 46 | Senators | L 0–2 @ Hurricanes Apr 18, 2026 | 23% | −23 |
| 47 | Kings | L 1–2 OT @ Avalanche Apr 22, 2026 | 25% | −25 |
| 48 | Wild | L 3–4 2OT vs Stars Apr 23, 2026 | 26% | −26 |
| 49 | Golden Knights | L 2–3 vs Mammoth Apr 22, 2026 | 26% | −26 |
| 50 | Bruins | L 1–6 vs Sabres Apr 26, 2026 | 29% | −29 |
| 51 | Senators | L 1–2 vs Hurricanes Apr 23, 2026 | 34% | −34 |
| 52 | Penguins | L 2–3 vs Flyers Apr 19, 2026 | 34% | −34 |
| 53 | Bruins | L 1–4 vs Sabres May 1, 2026 | 35% | −35 |
| 54 | Kings | L 1–2 @ Avalanche Apr 19, 2026 | 36% | −36 |
| 55 | Oilers | L 4–7 @ Ducks Apr 25, 2026 | 36% | −36 |
| 56 | Senators | L 2–3 OT @ Hurricanes Apr 20, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 57 | Ducks | L 3–4 @ Oilers Apr 21, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 58 | Oilers | L 3–4 OT @ Ducks Apr 27, 2026 | 38% | −38 |
| 59 | Flyers | L 2–3 @ Penguins Apr 27, 2026 | 38% | −38 |
| 60 | Canadiens | L 2–3 vs Lightning Apr 26, 2026 | 39% | −39 |
| 61 | Mammoth | L 4–5 OT vs Golden Knights Apr 28, 2026 | 39% | −39 |
| 62 | Bruins | L 3–4 @ Sabres Apr 19, 2026 | 39% | −39 |
| 63 | Mammoth | L 2–4 @ Golden Knights Apr 20, 2026 | 40% | −40 |
| 64 | Ducks | L 1–4 @ Oilers Apr 29, 2026 | 41% | −41 |
| 65 | Oilers | L 2–5 @ Ducks May 1, 2026 | 42% | −42 |
| 66 | Stars | L 2–4 vs Wild Apr 29, 2026 | 43% | −43 |
| 67 | Canadiens | L 0–1 OT vs Lightning May 1, 2026 | 43% | −43 |
| 68 | Stars | L 2–5 @ Wild Apr 30, 2026 | 44% | −44 |
| 69 | Lightning | L 2–3 vs Canadiens Apr 29, 2026 | 45% | −45 |
| 70 | Lightning | L 3–4 OT vs Canadiens Apr 19, 2026 | 45% | −45 |
| 71 | Bruins | L 1–3 vs Sabres Apr 23, 2026 | 46% | −46 |
| 72 | Lightning | L 2–3 OT @ Canadiens Apr 24, 2026 | 46% | −46 |
| 73 | Sabres | L 1–2 OT vs Bruins Apr 28, 2026 | 47% | −47 |
| 74 | Stars | L 2–3 OT @ Wild Apr 25, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 75 | Kings | L 2–4 vs Avalanche Apr 24, 2026 | 51% | −51 |
| 76 | Penguins | L 2–5 @ Flyers Apr 22, 2026 | 51% | −51 |
| 77 | Sabres | L 2–4 vs Bruins Apr 21, 2026 | 51% | −51 |
| 78 | Kings | L 1–5 vs Avalanche Apr 26, 2026 | 52% | −52 |
| 79 | Mammoth | L 1–5 vs Golden Knights May 2, 2026 | 52% | −52 |
| 80 | Senators | L 2–4 vs Hurricanes Apr 25, 2026 | 54% | −54 |
| 81 | Mammoth | L 4–5 2OT @ Golden Knights Apr 30, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 82 | Stars | L 1–6 vs Wild Apr 18, 2026 | 56% | −56 |
| 83 | Wild | L 2–4 @ Stars Apr 21, 2026 | 56% | −56 |
| 84 | Canadiens | L 2–3 OT @ Lightning Apr 21, 2026 | 57% | −57 |
| 85 | Oilers | L 4–6 vs Ducks Apr 23, 2026 | 58% | −58 |
| 86 | Penguins | L 0–1 OT @ Flyers Apr 29, 2026 | 60% | −60 |
| 87 | Penguins | L 0–3 vs Flyers Apr 20, 2026 | 62% | −62 |
| 88 | Flyers | L 2–4 vs Penguins Apr 26, 2026 | 63% | −63 |
| 89 | Golden Knights | L 2–4 @ Mammoth Apr 25, 2026 | 70% | −70 |
| 90 | Lightning | L 1–2 vs Canadiens May 3, 2026 | 75% | −75 |