luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

First round 2025-26 · April 20, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Penguins, Game 2, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Penguins 3–0, but the replays lean toward the Penguins: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 32 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The biggest swing (P2, 6:21 left): Porter Martone scored on a backhand shot from 18 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final

Philadelphia Flyers 3
Pittsburgh Penguins 0

April 20, 2026 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +62 Flyers very lucky · −62 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 4, Penguins win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 3 PIT 0
  2. 2 PHI 2 PIT 0
  3. 3 PHI 5 PIT 4
  4. 4 PHI 4 PIT 3
  5. 5 PHI 2 PIT 3
  6. 6 PHI 1 PIT 2
  7. 7 PHI 2 PIT 4
  8. 8 PHI 1 PIT 3
  9. 9 PHI 0 PIT 3
  10. 10 PHI 0 PIT 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Flyers win 38% of them, Penguins 62%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+9.8%
Flyers by 27.8%
Flyers by 120.4%
Penguins by 125.3%
Penguins by 213.0%
Penguins by 3+23.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Flyers by 3, without the luck Flyers by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers2821.69+0.31
Penguins5002.51−2.51

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:36 High sticking on the Flyers (Tyson Foerster): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 10:59 Tripping on the Penguins (Erik Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P1 9:47 Roughing on the Flyers (Rasmus Ristolainen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 6:42 Roughing on the Flyers (Nick Seeler): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 14:26 Too many men on the ice on the Penguins (PIT): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P2 4:12 Cross checking on the Flyers (Luke Glendening): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PIT
P2 0:15 High sticking on the Penguins (Evgeni Malkin): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P3 13:29 Interference on the Flyers (Travis Konecny): 2 minutes on the power play +2% PIT
P3 1:47 Interference on the Penguins (Kris Letang): 4 minutes on the power play 0% PHI
P3 0:19 Cross checking on the Penguins (Parker Wotherspoon): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PHI

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:36 High sticking on the Flyers (Tyson Foerster): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PIT –
2 P1 10:59 Tripping on the Penguins (Erik Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PHI –
3 P1 9:47 Roughing on the Flyers (Rasmus Ristolainen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PIT –
4 P1 6:42 Roughing on the Flyers (Nick Seeler): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PIT –
5 P2 14:26 Too many men on the ice on the Penguins (PIT): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% PHI –
6 P2 6:21 Porter Martone scored on a backhand shot from 18 feetShooting · 5% chance +22% PHI –
7 P2 4:12 Cross checking on the Flyers (Luke Glendening): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% PIT –
8 P2 2:17 Garnet Hathaway scored on a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 19% chance +13% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 79% · Penguins 21%

Final margin
Flyers by 3
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Flyers by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 38% · Penguins 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All first round 2025-26 games · Flyers · Penguins

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