luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

First round 2025-26 · April 18, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Hurricanes, Game 1, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Senators 2–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Senators had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 10 points of win probability to the Senators.

The biggest swing (P2, 17:49 left): Logan Stankoven scored on a wrist shot from 28 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

Final

Ottawa Senators 0
Carolina Hurricanes 2

April 18, 2026 · Lenovo Center

Luck index +23 Hurricanes about even · −23 Senators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 2, Hurricanes win 8.

  1. 1 OTT 7 CAR 5
  2. 2 OTT 2 CAR 1
  3. 3 OTT 0 CAR 1
  4. 4 OTT 0 CAR 1
  5. 5 OTT 3 CAR 5
  6. 6 OTT 2 CAR 5
  7. 7 OTT 1 CAR 4
  8. 8 OTT 0 CAR 4
  9. 9 OTT 0 CAR 5
  10. 10 OTT 3 CAR 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Senators win 23% of them, Hurricanes 77%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+4.9%
Senators by 24.8%
Senators by 113.3%
Hurricanes by 115.9%
Hurricanes by 210.9%
Hurricanes by 3+50.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 goals to the Hurricanes: the final margin was Hurricanes by 2, without the luck Hurricanes by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators3602.79−2.79
Hurricanes5224.17−2.17

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 6:26 Delaying game puck over glass on the Hurricanes (Jackson Blake): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 11:02 Too many men on the ice on the Senators (OTT): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P2 9:48 Tripping on the Senators (Jake Sanderson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P2 4:41 Slashing on the Hurricanes (K'Andre Miller): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P3 17:20 Interference on the Hurricanes (Jalen Chatfield): 2 minutes on the power play +5% OTT
P3 12:05 Interference on the Senators (Nick Cousins): 2 minutes on the power play +2% CAR
P3 8:53 Slashing on the Senators (Fabian Zetterlund): 2 minutes on the power play +2% CAR
P3 8:08 High sticking on the Senators (Shane Pinto): 2 minutes on the power play +2% CAR
P3 2:35 Delaying game puck over glass on the Hurricanes (Jalen Chatfield): 2 minutes on the power play +1% OTT
P3 0:00 Cross checking on the Senators (Dennis Gilbert): 4 minutes on the power play 0% CAR

When it happened

Hurricanes’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Hurricanes were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 17:49 Logan Stankoven scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 6% chance +18% CAR –
2 P2 4:41 Slashing on the Hurricanes (K'Andre Miller): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% OTT –
3 P3 17:20 Interference on the Hurricanes (Jalen Chatfield): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% OTT –
4 P3 16:09 Drake Batherson’s tip from 4 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance +7% CAR –
5 P3 16:08 Drake Batherson’s snap shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 47% chance +13% CAR –
6 P3 15:43 Brady Tkachuk’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 31% chance +9% CAR –
7 P3 14:40 Taylor Hall’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 32% chance +4% OTT –
8 P3 12:45 Taylor Hall scored on a deflected shot from 5 feetShooting · 16% chance +12% CAR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 17% · Hurricanes 83%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 2
Luck in goals
0.5 for the Hurricanes
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Senators 23% · Hurricanes 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All first round 2025-26 games · Senators · Hurricanes

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Every game of first round, 2025-26