First round 2025-26 · April 23, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Sabres at Bruins, Game 3, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?
The Sabres beat the Bruins 3–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Sabres win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Sabres.
The game turned on a luck play (P2, 9:02 left): Bowen Byram scored on a wrist shot from 33 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Sabres. The biggest single swing (P3, 15:57 left): Alex Tuch scored on a snap shot from 36 feet.
Final
 Buffalo Sabres | 3 |
|---|---|
 Boston Bruins | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Sabres lucky · −46 Bruins
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sabres win 5, Bruins win 5.
- 1 BUF 5 BOS 1
- 2 BUF 7 BOS 4
- 3 BUF 6 BOS 4
- 4 BUF 5 BOS 4
- 5 BUF 1 BOS 0
- 6 BUF 2 BOS 3
- 7 BUF 2 BOS 3
- 8 BUF 1 BOS 3
- 9 BUF 1 BOS 4
- 10 BUF 0 BOS 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.3 replays ended
Sabres win 54% of them, Bruins 46%. The line is what actually happened: Sabres by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sabres by 3+ | 20.2% |
| Sabres by 2 | 10.8% |
| Sabres by 1 | 23.3% |
| Bruins by 1 | 20.5% |
| Bruins by 2 | 9.3% |
| Bruins by 3+ | 16.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sabres | 43 | 2 | 2.59 | −0.59 |
 Bruins | 36 | 1 | 2.78 | −1.78 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:27 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Bruins (Hampus Lindholm): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BUF |
| P1 8:36 | Holding on the Sabres (Conor Timmins): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P1 6:13 | Roughing on the Sabres (Peyton Krebs): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P1 3:31 | Tripping on the Bruins (Nikita Zadorov): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BUF |
| P2 13:31 | Cross checking on the Bruins (Morgan Geekie): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BUF |
| P2 8:48 | High sticking on the Bruins (Tanner Jeannot): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% BUF |
| P3 8:33 | Interference on the Sabres (Rasmus Dahlin): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% BOS |
| P3 5:47 | Tripping on the Sabres (Tage Thompson): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% BOS |
| P3 0:09 | Roughing on the Bruins (Mark Kastelic): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% BUF |
When it happened
Bruins’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 16:34 | Tanner Jeannot scored on a snap shot from 47 feetShooting · 2% chance | +19% BOS | – |
| 2 | P2 9:02 | The game turned hereBowen Byram scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 5% chance | +20% BUF | – |
| 3 | P2 8:48 | High sticking on the Bruins (Tanner Jeannot): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% BUF | – |
| 4 | P3 15:57 | Alex Tuch scored on a snap shot from 36 feetShooting · 8% chance | +26% BUF | – |
| 5 | P3 8:33 | Interference on the Sabres (Rasmus Dahlin): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% BOS | – |
| 6 | P3 5:47 | Tripping on the Sabres (Tage Thompson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% BOS | – |
| 7 | P3 5:31 | David Pastrnak’s snap shot from 21 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +6% BUF | – |
| 8 | P3 4:08 | Viktor Arvidsson’s snap shot from 14 feet was savedShooting · 12% chance | +5% BUF | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sabres 69% · Bruins 31%
- Final margin
- Sabres by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for the Sabres
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sabres by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Sabres 54% · Bruins 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from first round, 2025-26
- Canadiens at Lightning May 3, 2026 · MTL 2–1 · replay 25% for the winner
- Canadiens at Lightning Apr 21, 2026 · TBL 3–2 OT · replay 43% for the winner
- Hurricanes at Senators Apr 25, 2026 · CAR 4–2 · replay 46% for the winner
- Bruins at Sabres Apr 21, 2026 · BOS 4–2 · replay 49% for the winner
- Bruins at Sabres Apr 28, 2026 · BOS 2–1 OT · replay 53% for the winner
- Lightning at Canadiens Apr 24, 2026 · MTL 3–2 OT · replay 54% for the winner
- Canadiens at Lightning Apr 19, 2026 · MTL 4–3 OT · replay 55% for the winner
- Canadiens at Lightning Apr 29, 2026 · MTL 3–2 · replay 55% for the winner
- Lightning at Canadiens May 1, 2026 · TBL 1–0 OT · replay 57% for the winner
- Bruins at Sabres Apr 19, 2026 · BUF 4–3 · replay 61% for the winner
- Lightning at Canadiens Apr 26, 2026 · TBL 3–2 · replay 61% for the winner
- Senators at Hurricanes Apr 20, 2026 · CAR 3–2 OT · replay 63% for the winner