luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

First round 2025-26 · April 29, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canadiens at Lightning, Game 5, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Canadiens beat the Lightning 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canadiens win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 20 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

The biggest swing (P3, 18:54 left): Alexandre Texier scored on a snap shot from 35 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

Final

Montreal Canadiens 3
Tampa Bay Lightning 2

April 29, 2026 · Benchmark International Arena

Luck index +45 Canadiens lucky · −45 Lightning

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canadiens win 6, Lightning win 4.

  1. 1 MTL 5 TBL 1
  2. 2 MTL 5 TBL 2
  3. 3 MTL 3 TBL 1
  4. 4 MTL 2 TBL 1
  5. 5 MTL 2 TBL 1
  6. 6 MTL 4 TBL 3
  7. 7 MTL 1 TBL 2
  8. 8 MTL 2 TBL 3
  9. 9 MTL 0 TBL 2
  10. 10 MTL 1 TBL 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Canadiens win 55% of them, Lightning 45%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canadiens by 3+19.2%
Canadiens by 211.6%
Canadiens by 124.3%
Lightning by 123.4%
Lightning by 29.0%
Lightning by 3+12.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 goals to the Canadiens: the final margin was Canadiens by 1, without the luck Canadiens by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canadiens3332.40+0.60
Lightning4722.64−0.64

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 12:30 High sticking double minor on the Lightning (Ryan McDonagh): 4 minutes on the power play +7% MTL
P1 6:54 Delaying game puck over glass on the Canadiens (Jake Evans): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P2 18:47 Delaying game puck over glass on the Canadiens (Lane Hutson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL
P2 15:43 Roughing on the Canadiens (Arber Xhekaj): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TBL

When it happened

Lightning’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Lightning were ahead in it, below while the Canadiens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:00 Brendan Gallagher scored on a wrist shot from 3 feetShooting · 28% chance +12% MTL –
2 P1 12:30 High sticking double minor on the Lightning (Ryan McDonagh): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% MTL –
3 P2 13:11 Dominic James scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 11% chance +19% TBL –
4 P2 13:00 Kirby Dach scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 13% chance +18% MTL –
5 P2 2:37 Jake Guentzel scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 8% chance +22% TBL –
6 P2 1:41 Ivan Demidov’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +5% TBL –
7 P3 18:54 Alexandre Texier scored on a snap shot from 35 feetShooting · 6% chance +25% MTL –
8 P3 1:32 Anthony Cirelli’s backhand shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 10% chance +4% MTL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canadiens 47% · Lightning 53%

Final margin
Canadiens by 1
Luck in goals
0.9 for the Canadiens
Luck-adjusted margin
Canadiens by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Canadiens 55% · Lightning 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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