luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

First round 2025-26 · April 20, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Hurricanes, Game 2, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Hurricanes beat the Senators 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Senators had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 27 points of win probability to the Senators.

The biggest swing (OT, 3:11 left): A Hurricanes goal came off the board on review (off side), worth 50 points of win probability to the Senators.

Final (OT)

Ottawa Senators 2
Carolina Hurricanes 3

April 20, 2026 · Lenovo Center

Luck index +37 Hurricanes lucky · −37 Senators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 4, Hurricanes win 6.

  1. 1 OTT 4 CAR 1
  2. 2 OTT 4 CAR 2
  3. 3 OTT 3 CAR 2
  4. 4 OTT 2 CAR 1
  5. 5 OTT 3 CAR 4
  6. 6 OTT 3 CAR 4
  7. 7 OTT 1 CAR 3
  8. 8 OTT 4 CAR 7
  9. 9 OTT 1 CAR 4
  10. 10 OTT 0 CAR 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Senators win 37% of them, Hurricanes 63%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+11.6%
Senators by 27.4%
Senators by 117.9%
Hurricanes by 120.8%
Hurricanes by 211.9%
Hurricanes by 3+30.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 goals to the Hurricanes: the final margin was Hurricanes by 1, without the luck Hurricanes by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators4622.46−0.46
Hurricanes5723.37−1.37

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:46 Roughing on the Senators (Brady Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P1 11:11 Roughing on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power play +3% OTT
P1 4:38 Interference on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 14:11 Tripping on the Hurricanes (Sean Walker): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
OT 3:11 A Hurricanes goal came off the board on review (off side) +50% OTT

When it happened

Hurricanes’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Hurricanes were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:29 Logan Stankoven scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 21% chance +13% CAR –
2 P2 12:10 Sebastian Aho scored on a tip from 16 feetShooting · 8% chance +13% CAR –
3 P2 9:13 Drake Batherson scored on a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 11% chance +13% OTT –
4 P2 3:20 Dylan Cozens scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 3% chance +23% OTT –
5 P2 0:47 Jordan Martinook’s snap shot from 14 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +4% OTT –
6 P3 0:22 Jordan Staal’s snap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +9% OTT –
7 OT The Hurricanes won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +47% CAR –
8 OT 3:11 A Hurricanes goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals +50% OTT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 35% · Hurricanes 65%

Final margin
Hurricanes by 1
Luck in goals
0.3 for the Hurricanes
Luck-adjusted margin
Hurricanes by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Senators 37% · Hurricanes 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All first round 2025-26 games · Senators · Hurricanes

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