luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

First round 2025-26 · April 29, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Penguins at Flyers, Game 6, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Penguins 1–0, but the replays lean toward the Penguins: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 63 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The biggest swing (OT): the Flyers won in overtime, worth 52 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final (OT)

Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Philadelphia Flyers 1

April 29, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +60 Flyers very lucky · −60 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penguins win 6, Flyers win 4.

  1. 1 PIT 5 PHI 0
  2. 2 PIT 3 PHI 0
  3. 3 PIT 5 PHI 3
  4. 4 PIT 5 PHI 3
  5. 5 PIT 3 PHI 2
  6. 6 PIT 2 PHI 1
  7. 7 PIT 2 PHI 3
  8. 8 PIT 1 PHI 2
  9. 9 PIT 2 PHI 4
  10. 10 PIT 1 PHI 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Penguins win 60% of them, Flyers 40%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penguins by 3+26.8%
Penguins by 210.8%
Penguins by 122.5%
Flyers by 119.4%
Flyers by 29.0%
Flyers by 3+11.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Flyers by 1, without the luck Penguins by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Penguins5403.19−3.19
Flyers3302.41−2.41

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 8:07 Interference on the Flyers (Jamie Drysdale): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 5:19 Holding on the Penguins (Noel Acciari): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 14:26 Slashing on the Flyers (Luke Glendening): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PIT
P2 0:00 Roughing on the Penguins (Kris Letang): 2 minutes on the power play +6% PHI

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Penguins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 14:26 Slashing on the Flyers (Luke Glendening): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% PIT –
2 P2 4:05 Matvei Michkov’s wrist shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +5% PIT –
3 P2 0:26 Travis Konecny’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance +6% PIT –
4 P2 0:00 Roughing on the Penguins (Kris Letang): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% PHI –
5 P3 7:10 Noah Cates’s snap shot from 25 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +5% PIT –
6 P3 3:39 Bryan Rust’s wrist shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +7% PHI –
7 P3 3:37 Bryan Rust’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 33% chance +13% PHI –
8 OT The Flyers won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +52% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penguins 63% · Flyers 37%

Final margin
Flyers by 1
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Penguins by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Penguins 60% · Flyers 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All first round 2025-26 games · Penguins · Flyers

More from first round, 2025-26

Every game of first round, 2025-26