luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

First round 2025-26 · April 19, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Penguins, Game 1, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Penguins 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

The game turned on a luck play (P2, 10:41 left): Jamie Drysdale scored on a wrist shot from 32 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Flyers. The biggest single swing (P3, 10:00 left): Travis Sanheim scored on a wrist shot from 26 feet.

Final

Philadelphia Flyers 3
Pittsburgh Penguins 2

April 19, 2026 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +34 Flyers lucky · −34 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 7, Penguins win 3.

  1. 1 PHI 5 PIT 1
  2. 2 PHI 3 PIT 0
  3. 3 PHI 3 PIT 0
  4. 4 PHI 2 PIT 0
  5. 5 PHI 2 PIT 1
  6. 6 PHI 1 PIT 0
  7. 7 PHI 1 PIT 0
  8. 8 PHI 0 PIT 1
  9. 9 PHI 1 PIT 2
  10. 10 PHI 0 PIT 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Flyers win 66% of them, Penguins 34%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+25.8%
Flyers by 213.0%
Flyers by 127.2%
Penguins by 120.7%
Penguins by 27.2%
Penguins by 3+6.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 goals to the Penguins: the final margin was Flyers by 1, without the luck Flyers by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers3632.16+0.84
Penguins2921.80+0.20

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:07 Roughing on the Flyers (Rasmus Ristolainen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 13:23 Tripping on the Penguins (Kris Letang): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 9:22 Interference on the Flyers (Travis Sanheim): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 1:12 Cross checking on the Penguins (Anthony Mantha): 2 minutes on the power play +6% PHI
P3 16:12 High sticking on the Penguins (Anthony Mantha): 2 minutes on the power play +6% PHI

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 10:41 The game turned hereJamie Drysdale scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 4% chance +21% PHI –
2 P2 4:09 Evgeni Malkin scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 5% chance +23% PIT –
3 P2 1:12 Cross checking on the Penguins (Anthony Mantha): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% PHI –
4 P3 16:12 High sticking on the Penguins (Anthony Mantha): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% PHI –
5 P3 10:54 Denver Barkey’s snap shot from 23 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +5% PIT –
6 P3 10:00 Travis Sanheim scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 10% chance +29% PHI –
7 P3 2:37 Porter Martone scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 4% chance +7% PHI –
8 P3 0:06 Anthony Mantha’s backhand shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance +12% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 86% · Penguins 14%

Final margin
Flyers by 1
Luck in goals
0.4 for the Penguins
Luck-adjusted margin
Flyers by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 66% · Penguins 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All first round 2025-26 games · Flyers · Penguins

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