First round 2025-26 · April 23, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Hurricanes at Senators, Game 3, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?
The Hurricanes beat the Senators 2–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Senators had the bounces: empty-net goals alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Senators.
The biggest swing (P2, 2:31 left): Jackson Blake scored on a wrist shot from 12 feet, worth 23 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.
Final
 Carolina Hurricanes | 2 |
|---|---|
 Ottawa Senators | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Hurricanes lucky · −34 Senators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hurricanes win 7, Senators win 3.
- 1 CAR 5 OTT 0
- 2 CAR 3 OTT 0
- 3 CAR 4 OTT 1
- 4 CAR 3 OTT 1
- 5 CAR 1 OTT 0
- 6 CAR 2 OTT 1
- 7 CAR 2 OTT 1
- 8 CAR 1 OTT 2
- 9 CAR 0 OTT 1
- 10 CAR 0 OTT 3
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Hurricanes win 66% of them, Senators 34%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes by 3+ | 30.3% |
| Hurricanes by 2 | 12.9% |
| Hurricanes by 1 | 22.9% |
| Senators by 1 | 19.4% |
| Senators by 2 | 7.2% |
| Senators by 3+ | 7.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hurricanes | 42 | 2 | 2.63 | −0.63 |
 Senators | 32 | 1 | 1.56 | −0.56 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:14 | High sticking on the Senators (Michael Amadio): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P1 9:45 | Interference on the Senators (Drake Batherson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P1 4:31 | Too many men on the ice on the Senators (OTT): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P2 18:31 | Hooking on the Hurricanes (Sebastian Aho): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 15:36 | Illegal check to head on the Hurricanes (Taylor Hall): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 10:37 | Too many men on the ice on the Hurricanes (CAR): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 10:05 | Hooking on the Hurricanes (Jalen Chatfield): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 1:18 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Jordan Martinook): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% OTT |
| P3 11:14 | Interference on the Senators (Brady Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CAR |
When it happened
Senators’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:47 | Logan Stankoven scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 9% chance | +15% CAR | – |
| 2 | P2 10:37 | Too many men on the ice on the Hurricanes (CAR): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% OTT | – |
| 3 | P2 10:05 | Hooking on the Hurricanes (Jalen Chatfield): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% OTT | – |
| 4 | P2 6:24 | Brady Tkachuk’s backhand shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance | +5% CAR | – |
| 5 | P2 3:54 | Drake Batherson scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 12% chance | +21% OTT | – |
| 6 | P2 2:31 | Jackson Blake scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 7% chance | +23% CAR | – |
| 7 | P2 1:18 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Jordan Martinook): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% OTT | – |
| 8 | P3 11:14 | Interference on the Senators (Brady Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% CAR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hurricanes 95% · Senators 5%
- Final margin
- Hurricanes by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for the Senators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hurricanes by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Hurricanes 66% · Senators 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from first round, 2025-26
- Canadiens at Lightning May 3, 2026 · MTL 2–1 · replay 25% for the winner
- Penguins at Flyers Apr 26, 2026 · PIT 4–2 · replay 37% for the winner
- Flyers at Penguins Apr 20, 2026 · PHI 3–0 · replay 38% for the winner
- Penguins at Flyers Apr 29, 2026 · PHI 1–0 OT · replay 40% for the winner
- Canadiens at Lightning Apr 21, 2026 · TBL 3–2 OT · replay 43% for the winner
- Hurricanes at Senators Apr 25, 2026 · CAR 4–2 · replay 46% for the winner
- Bruins at Sabres Apr 21, 2026 · BOS 4–2 · replay 49% for the winner
- Penguins at Flyers Apr 22, 2026 · PHI 5–2 · replay 49% for the winner
- Bruins at Sabres Apr 28, 2026 · BOS 2–1 OT · replay 53% for the winner
- Lightning at Canadiens Apr 24, 2026 · MTL 3–2 OT · replay 54% for the winner
- Sabres at Bruins Apr 23, 2026 · BUF 3–1 · replay 54% for the winner
- Canadiens at Lightning Apr 19, 2026 · MTL 4–3 OT · replay 55% for the winner