luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

First round 2025-26 · April 22, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Penguins at Flyers, Game 3, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Penguins 5–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flyers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 18 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The biggest swing (P2, 10:54 left): Rasmus Ristolainen scored on a snap shot from 30 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Philadelphia Flyers 5

April 22, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +51 Flyers lucky · −51 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penguins win 5, Flyers win 5.

  1. 1 PIT 5 PHI 1
  2. 2 PIT 5 PHI 2
  3. 3 PIT 5 PHI 3
  4. 4 PIT 4 PHI 3
  5. 5 PIT 4 PHI 3
  6. 6 PIT 3 PHI 4
  7. 7 PIT 1 PHI 2
  8. 8 PIT 5 PHI 7
  9. 9 PIT 2 PHI 5
  10. 10 PIT 4 PHI 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Penguins win 51% of them, Flyers 49%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penguins by 3+20.3%
Penguins by 210.3%
Penguins by 120.1%
Flyers by 121.4%
Flyers by 29.5%
Flyers by 3+18.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Flyers by 3, without the luck Flyers by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Penguins5123.05−1.05
Flyers4042.70+1.30

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:39 Tripping on the Flyers (Sean Couturier): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 17:40 Tripping on the Penguins (Erik Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 15:27 Roughing on the Penguins (Bryan Rust): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 14:26 Cross checking on the Flyers (Nick Seeler): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PIT
P3 14:49 Tripping on the Flyers (Tyson Foerster): 2 minutes on the power play +2% PIT
P3 11:48 Roughing on the Flyers (Matvei Michkov): 2 minutes on the power play +2% PIT
P3 8:48 Delaying game puck over glass on the Penguins (Anthony Mantha): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P3 6:32 Hooking on the Flyers (Sean Couturier): 2 minutes on the power play +2% PIT
P3 0:00 Unsportsmanlike conduct on the Flyers (Porter Martone): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PIT

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Penguins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:42 Evgeni Malkin scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 15% chance +14% PIT –
2 P2 14:42 Trevor Zegras scored on a slap shot from 33 feetShooting · 10% chance +18% PHI –
3 P2 14:26 Cross checking on the Flyers (Nick Seeler): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% PIT –
4 P2 10:54 Rasmus Ristolainen scored on a snap shot from 30 feetShooting · 5% chance +20% PHI –
5 P2 8:42 Nick Seeler scored on a snap shot from 61 feetShooting · 1% chance +14% PHI –
6 P3 10:21 Erik Karlsson scored on a slap shot from 43 feetShooting · 7% chance +12% PIT –
7 P3 8:48 Delaying game puck over glass on the Penguins (Anthony Mantha): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% PHI –
8 P3 7:30 Noah Cates scored on a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 38% chance +7% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penguins 26% · Flyers 74%

Final margin
Flyers by 3
Luck in goals
2.0 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Flyers by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Penguins 51% · Flyers 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All first round 2025-26 games · Penguins · Flyers

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