luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

First round 2025-26 · April 27, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Penguins, Game 5, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Penguins beat the Flyers 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 2:48 left): Kris Letang scored on a wrist shot from 69 feet, worth 23 points of win probability to the Penguins.

Final

Philadelphia Flyers 2
Pittsburgh Penguins 3

April 27, 2026 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +38 Penguins lucky · −38 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 4, Penguins win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 3 PIT 0
  2. 2 PHI 3 PIT 1
  3. 3 PHI 2 PIT 1
  4. 4 PHI 3 PIT 2
  5. 5 PHI 1 PIT 2
  6. 6 PHI 1 PIT 2
  7. 7 PHI 5 PIT 6
  8. 8 PHI 1 PIT 3
  9. 9 PHI 2 PIT 5
  10. 10 PHI 1 PIT 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Flyers win 38% of them, Penguins 62%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+9.6%
Flyers by 29.1%
Flyers by 119.4%
Penguins by 123.3%
Penguins by 212.5%
Penguins by 3+26.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Penguins by 1, without the luck Penguins by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers4222.000.00
Penguins4032.72+0.28

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:43 Tripping on the Penguins (Samuel Girard): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P1 5:33 Tripping on the Flyers (Garnet Hathaway): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 10:37 Tripping on the Penguins (Erik Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P3 18:23 Tripping on the Flyers (Emil Andrae): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PIT
P3 0:00 Cross checking on the Flyers (Travis Konecny): 2 minutes on the power play +6% PIT

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:15 Elmer Soderblom scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 15% chance +13% PIT –
2 P2 16:43 Connor Dewar scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 9% chance +13% PIT –
3 P2 16:31 Alex Bump scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 7% chance +13% PHI –
4 P2 9:53 Tyson Foerster missed the net with a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 23% chance +5% PIT –
5 P2 4:54 Travis Sanheim scored on a wrist shot from 47 feetShooting · 1% chance +22% PHI –
6 P2 2:48 Kris Letang scored on a wrist shot from 69 feetShooting · 1% chance +23% PIT –
7 P3 18:23 Tripping on the Flyers (Emil Andrae): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% PIT –
8 P3 0:00 Cross checking on the Flyers (Travis Konecny): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% PIT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 16% · Penguins 84%

Final margin
Penguins by 1
Luck in goals
0.7 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Penguins by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 38% · Penguins 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All first round 2025-26 games · Flyers · Penguins

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