First round 2025-26 · April 19, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Canadiens at Lightning, Game 1, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?
The Canadiens beat the Lightning 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canadiens win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 47 points of win probability to the Canadiens.
The game turned on a luck play (P2, 0:24 left): Juraj Slafkovský scored on a snap shot from 31 feet, worth 23 points of win probability to the Canadiens. The biggest single swing (OT): the Canadiens won in overtime.
Final (OT)
 Montreal Canadiens | 4 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Canadiens lucky · −45 Lightning
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Canadiens win 5, Lightning win 5.
- 1 MTL 6 TBL 2
- 2 MTL 3 TBL 0
- 3 MTL 3 TBL 1
- 4 MTL 2 TBL 1
- 5 MTL 2 TBL 1
- 6 MTL 2 TBL 3
- 7 MTL 2 TBL 3
- 8 MTL 2 TBL 4
- 9 MTL 0 TBL 2
- 10 MTL 4 TBL 7
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.2 replays ended
Canadiens win 55% of them, Lightning 45%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Canadiens by 3+ | 21.6% |
| Canadiens by 2 | 11.2% |
| Canadiens by 1 | 22.0% |
| Lightning by 1 | 21.6% |
| Lightning by 2 | 9.4% |
| Lightning by 3+ | 14.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Canadiens | 27 | 3 | 2.60 | +0.40 |
 Lightning | 37 | 3 | 2.22 | +0.78 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 9:23 | Too many men on the ice on the Lightning (TBL): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P1 5:23 | Tripping on the Canadiens (Alex Newhook): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P1 2:23 | Interference on the Canadiens (Juraj Slafkovský): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P1 0:13 | High sticking double minor on the Canadiens (Kaiden Guhle): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P2 19:21 | High sticking on the Lightning (Nikita Kucherov): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P2 9:05 | Charging on the Canadiens (Josh Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P2 1:28 | High sticking on the Lightning (Conor Geekie): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MTL |
| P3 15:40 | Interference on the Lightning (Anthony Cirelli): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% MTL |
| P3 12:32 | Slashing on the Canadiens (Zachary Bolduc): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% TBL |
| P3 0:21 | High sticking on the Lightning (Jake Guentzel): 2 minutes on the power play | +11% MTL |
When it happened
Lightning’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 6:36 | Josh Anderson scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 9% chance | +16% MTL | – |
| 2 | P2 7:45 | Darren Raddysh scored on a slap shot from 38 feetShooting · 9% chance | +20% TBL | – |
| 3 | P2 7:16 | Brandon Hagel scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 8% chance | +20% TBL | – |
| 4 | P2 0:24 | The game turned hereJuraj Slafkovský scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 7% chance | +23% MTL | – |
| 5 | P3 14:04 | Juraj Slafkovský scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 23% chance | +22% MTL | – |
| 6 | P3 11:02 | Brandon Hagel scored on a tip from 6 feetShooting · 17% chance | +26% TBL | – |
| 7 | P3 0:21 | High sticking on the Lightning (Jake Guentzel): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +11% MTL | – |
| 8 | OT | The Canadiens won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +47% MTL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Canadiens 58% · Lightning 42%
- Final margin
- Canadiens by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for the Canadiens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Canadiens by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Canadiens 55% · Lightning 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from first round, 2025-26
- Canadiens at Lightning May 3, 2026 · MTL 2–1 · replay 25% for the winner
- Canadiens at Lightning Apr 21, 2026 · TBL 3–2 OT · replay 43% for the winner
- Hurricanes at Senators Apr 25, 2026 · CAR 4–2 · replay 46% for the winner
- Bruins at Sabres Apr 21, 2026 · BOS 4–2 · replay 49% for the winner
- Bruins at Sabres Apr 28, 2026 · BOS 2–1 OT · replay 53% for the winner
- Lightning at Canadiens Apr 24, 2026 · MTL 3–2 OT · replay 54% for the winner
- Sabres at Bruins Apr 23, 2026 · BUF 3–1 · replay 54% for the winner
- Canadiens at Lightning Apr 29, 2026 · MTL 3–2 · replay 55% for the winner
- Lightning at Canadiens May 1, 2026 · TBL 1–0 OT · replay 57% for the winner
- Bruins at Sabres Apr 19, 2026 · BUF 4–3 · replay 61% for the winner
- Lightning at Canadiens Apr 26, 2026 · TBL 3–2 · replay 61% for the winner
- Senators at Hurricanes Apr 20, 2026 · CAR 3–2 OT · replay 63% for the winner