First round 2025-26 · April 23, 2026 · 2OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Stars at Wild, Game 3, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?
The Stars beat the Wild 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Wild had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 28 points of win probability to the Wild.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 9:42 left): Matt Duchene scored on a snap shot from 16 feet, worth 30 points of win probability to the Stars. The biggest single swing (OT): the Stars won in overtime.
Final (OT)
 Dallas Stars | 4 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Wild | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Stars lucky · −26 Wild
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stars win 7, Wild win 3.
- 1 DAL 7 MIN 2
- 2 DAL 4 MIN 0
- 3 DAL 5 MIN 2
- 4 DAL 5 MIN 2
- 5 DAL 2 MIN 0
- 6 DAL 2 MIN 1
- 7 DAL 1 MIN 0
- 8 DAL 2 MIN 3
- 9 DAL 2 MIN 3
- 10 DAL 1 MIN 3
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Stars win 74% of them, Wild 26%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stars by 3+ | 37.8% |
| Stars by 2 | 14.1% |
| Stars by 1 | 22.3% |
| Wild by 1 | 16.3% |
| Wild by 2 | 6.1% |
| Wild by 3+ | 3.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stars | 37 | 3 | 2.95 | +0.05 |
 Wild | 30 | 3 | 1.17 | +1.83 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:55 | Tripping on the Wild (Jonas Brodin): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P1 10:36 | Holding on the Wild (Nick Foligno): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P1 3:35 | High sticking on the Stars (Jason Robertson): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% MIN |
| P2 10:56 | Hooking on the Stars (Jamie Benn): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MIN |
| P2 9:12 | Interference on the Wild (Ryan Hartman): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DAL |
| P2 6:02 | Cross checking on the Wild (Ryan Hartman): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DAL |
| P2 4:42 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Wild (Matt Boldy): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DAL |
| P3 19:42 | Tripping on the Stars (Esa Lindell): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MIN |
| P3 13:47 | Tripping on the Stars (Radek Faksa): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MIN |
| P3 11:33 | Tripping on the Wild (Bobby Brink): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DAL |
| P3 7:30 | Tripping on the Stars (Mikko Rantanen): 2 minutes on the power play | +8% MIN |
| OT 5:24 | Tripping on the Stars (Sam Steel): 2 minutes on the power play | +12% MIN |
| OT 0:51 | Holding on the Stars (Jamie Benn): 2 minutes on the power play | +12% MIN |
| 2OT 14:06 | Interference on the Wild (Quinn Hughes): 2 minutes on the power play | +12% DAL |
| 2OT 9:04 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Wild (Danila Yurov): 2 minutes on the power play | +12% DAL |
When it happened
Wild’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:35 | Mikko Rantanen scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 12% chance | +14% DAL | – |
| 2 | P1 6:12 | Jason Robertson scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 8% chance | +14% DAL | – |
| 3 | P1 1:40 | Marcus Johansson scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 10% chance | +14% MIN | – |
| 4 | P2 15:00 | Joel Eriksson Ek scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 11% chance | +18% MIN | – |
| 5 | P2 2:35 | Michael McCarron scored on a wrist shot from 37 feetShooting · 4% chance | +23% MIN | – |
| 6 | P3 9:42 | The game turned hereMatt Duchene scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 7% chance | +30% DAL | – |
| 7 | OT | The Stars won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +38% DAL | – |
| 8 | OT 5:24 | Tripping on the Stars (Sam Steel): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +12% MIN | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stars 85% · Wild 15%
- Final margin
- Stars by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for the Wild
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stars by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Stars 74% · Wild 26% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from first round, 2025-26
- Golden Knights at Mammoth Apr 25, 2026 · UTA 4–2 · replay 30% for the winner
- Wild at Stars Apr 21, 2026 · DAL 4–2 · replay 44% for the winner
- Wild at Stars Apr 18, 2026 · MIN 6–1 · replay 44% for the winner
- Mammoth at Golden Knights Apr 30, 2026 · VGK 5–4 2OT · replay 45% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Mammoth May 2, 2026 · VGK 5–1 · replay 48% for the winner
- Avalanche at Kings Apr 26, 2026 · COL 5–1 · replay 48% for the winner
- Avalanche at Kings Apr 24, 2026 · COL 4–2 · replay 49% for the winner
- Stars at Wild Apr 25, 2026 · MIN 3–2 OT · replay 52% for the winner
- Stars at Wild Apr 30, 2026 · MIN 5–2 · replay 56% for the winner
- Wild at Stars Apr 29, 2026 · MIN 4–2 · replay 57% for the winner
- Mammoth at Golden Knights Apr 20, 2026 · VGK 4–2 · replay 60% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Mammoth Apr 28, 2026 · VGK 5–4 OT · replay 61% for the winner