luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

First round 2025-26 · April 25, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Stars at Wild, Game 4, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Wild beat the Stars 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Wild win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Wild.

The biggest swing (OT): the Wild won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Wild.

Final (OT)

Dallas Stars 2
Minnesota Wild 3

April 25, 2026 · Grand Casino Arena

Luck index +48 Wild lucky · −48 Stars

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Stars win 5, Wild win 5.

  1. 1 DAL 6 MIN 2
  2. 2 DAL 5 MIN 2
  3. 3 DAL 5 MIN 3
  4. 4 DAL 6 MIN 5
  5. 5 DAL 3 MIN 2
  6. 6 DAL 2 MIN 3
  7. 7 DAL 3 MIN 4
  8. 8 DAL 1 MIN 3
  9. 9 DAL 1 MIN 4
  10. 10 DAL 1 MIN 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Stars win 48% of them, Wild 52%. The line is what actually happened: Wild by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Stars by 3+17.6%
Stars by 210.3%
Stars by 120.4%
Wild by 123.1%
Wild by 210.9%
Wild by 3+17.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Wild: the final margin was Wild by 1, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Stars5122.79−0.79
Wild4822.69−0.69

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:29 Interference goalkeeper on the Wild (Ryan Hartman): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P1 12:13 Roughing on the Stars (Mavrik Bourque): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P1 10:10 Hooking on the Stars (Lian Bichsel): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P1 2:00 High sticking on the Stars (Wyatt Johnston): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P2 6:45 Tripping on the Stars (Nils Lundkvist): 2 minutes on the power play +5% MIN
P2 2:15 High sticking on the Wild (Brock Faber): 2 minutes on the power play +6% DAL

When it happened

Wild’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Wild were ahead in it, below while the Stars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:25 Jason Robertson scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% DAL –
2 P1 6:08 Brock Faber scored on a wrist shot from 61 feetShooting · 1% chance +18% MIN –
3 P2 6:45 Tripping on the Stars (Nils Lundkvist): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% MIN –
4 P2 2:15 High sticking on the Wild (Brock Faber): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% DAL –
5 P2 0:35 Miro Heiskanen scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 8% chance +23% DAL –
6 P3 8:53 Kirill Kaprizov’s deflected shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +5% DAL –
7 P3 5:20 Marcus Foligno scored on a backhand shot from 3 feetShooting · 32% chance +26% MIN –
8 OT The Wild won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% MIN –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Stars 50% · Wild 50%

Final margin
Wild by 1
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Wild
Luck-adjusted margin
Stars by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Stars 48% · Wild 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All first round 2025-26 games · Stars · Wild

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