First round 2025-26 · April 28, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Golden Knights at Mammoth, Game 4, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?
The Golden Knights beat the Mammoth 5–4, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Mammoth had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 25 points of win probability to the Mammoth.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 9:35 left): Brett Howden scored on a tip from 7 feet, worth 29 points of win probability to the Golden Knights. The biggest single swing (OT, 9:42 left): A Mammoth goal came off the board on review (off side).
Final (OT)
 Vegas Golden Knights | 5 |
|---|---|
 Utah Mammoth | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Golden Knights lucky · −39 Mammoth
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Golden Knights win 6, Mammoth win 4.
- 1 VGK 5 UTA 0
- 2 VGK 5 UTA 2
- 3 VGK 3 UTA 0
- 4 VGK 3 UTA 1
- 5 VGK 3 UTA 2
- 6 VGK 4 UTA 3
- 7 VGK 1 UTA 2
- 8 VGK 2 UTA 3
- 9 VGK 1 UTA 3
- 10 VGK 2 UTA 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Golden Knights win 61% of them, Mammoth 39%. The line is what actually happened: Golden Knights by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Golden Knights by 3+ | 28.4% |
| Golden Knights by 2 | 12.1% |
| Golden Knights by 1 | 20.5% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 19.3% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 8.3% |
| Mammoth by 3+ | 11.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Golden Knights | 48 | 4 | 3.10 | +0.90 |
 Mammoth | 34 | 4 | 2.23 | +1.77 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:00 | Interference on the Golden Knights (Colton Sissons): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P1 3:16 | Tripping on the Golden Knights (Cole Smith): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P2 16:16 | Interference on the Mammoth (Logan Cooley): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% VGK |
| P2 10:46 | Hooking on the Golden Knights (Cole Smith): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P2 3:46 | Too many men on the ice on the Mammoth (UTA): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% VGK |
| P3 14:21 | High sticking on the Mammoth (JJ Peterka): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% VGK |
| OT 17:32 | Slashing on the Mammoth (Kevin Stenlund): 2 minutes on the power play | +12% VGK |
| OT 9:42 | A Mammoth goal came off the board on review (off side) | +50% VGK |
When it happened
Mammoth’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:48 | Pavel Dorofeyev scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 18% chance | +13% VGK | – |
| 2 | P1 1:22 | Brett Howden scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 19% chance | +13% VGK | – |
| 3 | P2 11:27 | Ian Cole scored on a slap shot from 52 feetShooting · 2% chance | +16% UTA | – |
| 4 | P3 18:15 | Michael Carcone scored on a slap shot from 38 feetShooting · 5% chance | +25% UTA | – |
| 5 | P3 14:50 | Clayton Keller scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 6% chance | +26% UTA | – |
| 6 | P3 9:35 | The game turned hereBrett Howden scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 10% chance | +29% VGK | – |
| 7 | OT | The Golden Knights won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +45% VGK | – |
| 8 | OT 9:42 | A Mammoth goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals | +50% VGK | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Golden Knights 66% · Mammoth 34%
- Final margin
- Golden Knights by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for the Golden Knights
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Golden Knights by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Golden Knights 61% · Mammoth 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from first round, 2025-26
- Golden Knights at Mammoth Apr 25, 2026 · UTA 4–2 · replay 30% for the winner
- Ducks at Oilers Apr 23, 2026 · ANA 6–4 · replay 42% for the winner
- Wild at Stars Apr 21, 2026 · DAL 4–2 · replay 44% for the winner
- Wild at Stars Apr 18, 2026 · MIN 6–1 · replay 44% for the winner
- Mammoth at Golden Knights Apr 30, 2026 · VGK 5–4 2OT · replay 45% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Mammoth May 2, 2026 · VGK 5–1 · replay 48% for the winner
- Avalanche at Kings Apr 26, 2026 · COL 5–1 · replay 48% for the winner
- Avalanche at Kings Apr 24, 2026 · COL 4–2 · replay 49% for the winner
- Stars at Wild Apr 25, 2026 · MIN 3–2 OT · replay 52% for the winner
- Stars at Wild Apr 30, 2026 · MIN 5–2 · replay 56% for the winner
- Wild at Stars Apr 29, 2026 · MIN 4–2 · replay 57% for the winner
- Oilers at Ducks May 1, 2026 · ANA 5–2 · replay 58% for the winner