luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

First round 2025-26 · May 1, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sabres at Bruins, Game 6, first round 2025-26: who deserved to win?

The Sabres beat the Bruins 4–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 7:34 left): Mattias Samuelsson scored on a snap shot from 49 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Sabres.

Final

Buffalo Sabres 4
Boston Bruins 1

May 1, 2026 · TD Garden

Luck index +35 Sabres lucky · −35 Bruins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sabres win 6, Bruins win 4.

  1. 1 BUF 6 BOS 1
  2. 2 BUF 4 BOS 1
  3. 3 BUF 4 BOS 1
  4. 4 BUF 2 BOS 0
  5. 5 BUF 3 BOS 2
  6. 6 BUF 2 BOS 1
  7. 7 BUF 2 BOS 3
  8. 8 BUF 0 BOS 1
  9. 9 BUF 1 BOS 3
  10. 10 BUF 3 BOS 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Sabres win 65% of them, Bruins 35%. The line is what actually happened: Sabres by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sabres by 3+31.7%
Sabres by 211.2%
Sabres by 122.1%
Bruins by 119.6%
Bruins by 26.7%
Bruins by 3+8.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 goals to the Bruins: the final margin was Sabres by 3, without the luck Sabres by 3.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sabres3732.91+0.09
Bruins3911.86−0.86

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:31 Cross checking on the Bruins (Hampus Lindholm): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P1 6:29 Tripping on the Bruins (Jonathan Aspirot): 2 minutes on the power play +3% BUF
P2 12:56 Interference on the Bruins (Morgan Geekie): 2 minutes on the power play +4% BUF
P3 1:31 Slashing on the Bruins (Charlie McAvoy): 3 minutes on the power play 0% BUF

When it happened

Bruins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Bruins were ahead in it, below while the Sabres were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:35 Alex Tuch scored on a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 32% chance +11% BUF –
2 P1 13:31 Cross checking on the Bruins (Hampus Lindholm): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% BUF –
3 P1 11:40 Josh Doan’s deflected shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance +4% BOS –
4 P1 11:39 Josh Doan’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance +4% BOS –
5 P1 7:34 Mattias Samuelsson scored on a snap shot from 49 feetShooting · 3% chance +15% BUF –
6 P2 18:06 David Pastrnak scored on a slap shot from 33 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% BOS –
7 P2 12:56 Interference on the Bruins (Morgan Geekie): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% BUF –
8 P3 14:02 Zach Benson scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 18% chance +13% BUF –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sabres 96% · Bruins 4%

Final margin
Sabres by 3
Luck in goals
0.3 for the Bruins
Luck-adjusted margin
Sabres by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Sabres 65% · Bruins 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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