luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 14, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Blue Jackets, Apr 14, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Capitals beat the Blue Jackets 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Capitals win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Capitals.

The biggest swing (P3, 4:07 left): Jakob Chychrun scored on a snap shot from 41 feet, worth 37 points of win probability to the Capitals.

Final

Washington Capitals 2
Columbus Blue Jackets 1

April 14, 2026 · Nationwide Arena

Luck index +46 Capitals lucky · −46 Blue Jackets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 5, Blue Jackets win 5.

  1. 1 WSH 5 CBJ 1
  2. 2 WSH 7 CBJ 4
  3. 3 WSH 4 CBJ 2
  4. 4 WSH 5 CBJ 4
  5. 5 WSH 5 CBJ 4
  6. 6 WSH 2 CBJ 3
  7. 7 WSH 3 CBJ 4
  8. 8 WSH 3 CBJ 5
  9. 9 WSH 3 CBJ 6
  10. 10 WSH 1 CBJ 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Capitals win 54% of them, Blue Jackets 46%. The line is what actually happened: Capitals by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+23.9%
Capitals by 210.6%
Capitals by 119.2%
Blue Jackets by 120.0%
Blue Jackets by 210.1%
Blue Jackets by 3+16.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 goals to the Blue Jackets: the final margin was Capitals by 1, without the luck Capitals by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals3623.12−1.12
Blue Jackets3712.74−1.74

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 13:10 Too many men on the ice on the Capitals (WSH): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CBJ
P2 0:34 Slashing on the Blue Jackets (Kent Johnson): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WSH
P3 17:17 Hooking on the Blue Jackets (Mason Marchment): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WSH
P3 5:54 High sticking on the Blue Jackets (Miles Wood): 2 minutes on the power play +9% WSH

When it happened

Blue Jackets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blue Jackets were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 19:33 Boone Jenner scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 11% chance +16% CBJ –
2 P2 9:14 Anthony Beauvillier scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 9% chance +19% WSH –
3 P2 0:06 Dylan Strome’s snap shot from 19 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance +7% CBJ –
4 P3 18:07 Adam Fantilli missed the net with a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 34% chance +9% WSH –
5 P3 16:47 Tom Wilson’s snap shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance +6% CBJ –
6 P3 8:48 Aliaksei Protas’s snap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +7% CBJ –
7 P3 5:54 High sticking on the Blue Jackets (Miles Wood): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +9% WSH –
8 P3 4:07 Jakob Chychrun scored on a snap shot from 41 feetShooting · 8% chance +37% WSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 73% · Blue Jackets 27%

Final margin
Capitals by 1
Luck in goals
0.1 for the Blue Jackets
Luck-adjusted margin
Capitals by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 54% · Blue Jackets 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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