luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 13, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Hurricanes at Flyers, Apr 13, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Hurricanes 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Hurricanes had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 27 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.

The biggest swing (SO): the Flyers won the shootout, worth 51 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final (SO)

Carolina Hurricanes 2
Philadelphia Flyers 3

April 13, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +32 Flyers lucky · −32 Hurricanes

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Hurricanes win 3, Flyers win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 4 PHI 1
  2. 2 CAR 3 PHI 2
  3. 3 CAR 3 PHI 2
  4. 4 CAR 1 PHI 2
  5. 5 CAR 3 PHI 4
  6. 6 CAR 1 PHI 3
  7. 7 CAR 1 PHI 4
  8. 8 CAR 2 PHI 5
  9. 9 CAR 0 PHI 4
  10. 10 CAR 1 PHI 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Hurricanes win 32% of them, Flyers 68%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Hurricanes by 3+6.5%
Hurricanes by 26.2%
Hurricanes by 119.0%
Flyers by 120.7%
Flyers by 212.2%
Flyers by 3+35.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 goals to the Hurricanes: the final margin was Flyers by 1, without the luck Flyers by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Hurricanes4021.76+0.24
Flyers2823.17−1.17

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 4:55 Holding on the Flyers (Christian Dvorak): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CAR
P2 11:17 Roughing on the Hurricanes (Sean Walker): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P3 8:22 Slashing on the Hurricanes (Nikolaj Ehlers): 2 minutes on the power play +8% PHI

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Hurricanes were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:19 Bradly Nadeau scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 13% chance +15% CAR –
2 P1 4:30 Nikolaj Ehlers scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 8% chance +14% CAR –
3 P2 12:03 Matvei Michkov scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% PHI –
4 P2 10:29 Owen Tippett’s tip from 4 feet was savedShooting · 27% chance +6% CAR –
5 P2 9:30 Trevor Zegras scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 22% chance +17% PHI –
6 P3 9:53 Noah Cates’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 24% chance +8% CAR –
7 P3 8:22 Slashing on the Hurricanes (Nikolaj Ehlers): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% PHI –
8 SO The Flyers won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +51% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Hurricanes 25% · Flyers 75%

Final margin
Flyers by 1
Luck in goals
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Flyers by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Hurricanes 32% · Flyers 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 28 2025-26 games · Hurricanes · Flyers

More from week 28, 2025-26

Every game of week 28, 2025-26