2025-26 regular season · April 2, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Jets at Stars, Apr 2, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Stars beat the Jets 3–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Stars win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 16 points of win probability to the Stars.
The biggest swing (P1, 10:17 left): Matt Duchene scored on a snap shot from 13 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Stars.
Final
 Winnipeg Jets | 0 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Stars | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Stars lucky · −49 Jets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 5, Stars win 5.
- 1 WPG 3 DAL 0
- 2 WPG 4 DAL 1
- 3 WPG 8 DAL 6
- 4 WPG 2 DAL 1
- 5 WPG 4 DAL 3
- 6 WPG 1 DAL 2
- 7 WPG 2 DAL 3
- 8 WPG 2 DAL 4
- 9 WPG 1 DAL 4
- 10 WPG 0 DAL 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Jets win 49% of them, Stars 51%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 3+ | 17.2% |
| Jets by 2 | 9.8% |
| Jets by 1 | 21.6% |
| Stars by 1 | 23.8% |
| Stars by 2 | 10.6% |
| Stars by 3+ | 16.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jets | 36 | 0 | 2.71 | −2.71 |
 Stars | 35 | 3 | 2.21 | +0.79 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:19 | Tripping on the Stars (Miro Heiskanen): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P1 11:24 | Cross checking on the Jets (Haydn Fleury): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P2 13:04 | Tripping on the Stars (Jason Robertson): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% WPG |
| P3 10:36 | Unsportsmanlike conduct on the Stars (Colin Blackwell): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% WPG |
When it happened
Stars’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:19 | Tripping on the Stars (Miro Heiskanen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% WPG | – |
| 2 | P1 16:45 | Mark Scheifele missed the net with a slap shot from 25 feetShooting · 17% chance | +3% DAL | – |
| 3 | P1 16:40 | Gabriel Vilardi missed the net with a tip from 20 feetShooting · 12% chance | +2% DAL | – |
| 4 | P1 11:24 | Cross checking on the Jets (Haydn Fleury): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% DAL | – |
| 5 | P1 10:20 | Matt Duchene missed the net with a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 13% chance | +2% WPG | – |
| 6 | P1 10:17 | Matt Duchene scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% DAL | – |
| 7 | P1 8:48 | Arttu Hyry scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 10% chance | +12% DAL | – |
| 8 | P2 17:45 | Adam Erne scored on a tip from 25 feetShooting · 5% chance | +8% DAL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 31% · Stars 69%
- Final margin
- Stars by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for the Stars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stars by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 49% · Stars 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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