luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 4, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Panthers at Penguins, Apr 4, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Penguins beat the Panthers 9–4, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 18 points of win probability to the Panthers.

The biggest swing (P2, 18:09 left): Anthony Mantha scored on a wrist shot from 49 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Penguins.

Final

Florida Panthers 4
Pittsburgh Penguins 9

April 4, 2026 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +25 Penguins about even · −25 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Penguins win 8.

  1. 1 FLA 5 PIT 3
  2. 2 FLA 3 PIT 2
  3. 3 FLA 3 PIT 4
  4. 4 FLA 1 PIT 2
  5. 5 FLA 1 PIT 3
  6. 6 FLA 1 PIT 4
  7. 7 FLA 1 PIT 4
  8. 8 FLA 1 PIT 4
  9. 9 FLA 0 PIT 4
  10. 10 FLA 1 PIT 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 25% of them, Penguins 75%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 3+3.7%
Panthers by 24.7%
Panthers by 116.5%
Penguins by 118.4%
Penguins by 213.1%
Penguins by 3+43.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 goals to the Penguins: the final margin was Penguins by 5, without the luck Penguins by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Panthers2941.42+2.58
Penguins4493.18+5.82

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:48 Boarding on the Panthers (Mike Benning): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PIT
P2 15:34 Interference on the Panthers (Donovan Sebrango): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 4:06 Hooking on the Panthers (Eetu Luostarinen): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PIT

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:40 Noel Acciari scored on a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 8% chance +14% PIT –
2 P1 14:54 Erik Karlsson scored on a slap shot from 43 feetShooting · 6% chance +12% PIT –
3 P1 12:50 A.J. Greer scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 13% chance +11% FLA –
4 P1 5:29 Seth Jones scored on a slap shot from 65 feetShooting · 1% chance +17% FLA –
5 P2 18:09 Anthony Mantha scored on a wrist shot from 49 feetShooting · 1% chance +19% PIT –
6 P2 15:34 Interference on the Panthers (Donovan Sebrango): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PIT –
7 P2 14:09 Evgeni Malkin scored on a tip from 13 feetShooting · 6% chance +14% PIT –
8 P2 11:33 Evgeni Malkin scored on a tip from 4 feetShooting · 21% chance +6% PIT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 4% · Penguins 96%

Final margin
Penguins by 5
Luck in goals
2.4 for the Penguins
Luck-adjusted margin
Penguins by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 25% · Penguins 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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