luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 5, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blues at Avalanche, Apr 5, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Blues beat the Avalanche 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Avalanche had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 19 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

The biggest swing (P3, 2:50 left): Robert Thomas scored on a snap shot from 9 feet, worth 34 points of win probability to the Blues.

Final

St. Louis Blues 3
Colorado Avalanche 2

April 5, 2026 · Ball Arena

Luck index +32 Blues lucky · −32 Avalanche

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blues win 7, Avalanche win 3.

  1. 1 STL 9 COL 3
  2. 2 STL 8 COL 3
  3. 3 STL 4 COL 1
  4. 4 STL 6 COL 3
  5. 5 STL 4 COL 2
  6. 6 STL 7 COL 6
  7. 7 STL 8 COL 7
  8. 8 STL 5 COL 6
  9. 9 STL 3 COL 4
  10. 10 STL 3 COL 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Blues win 68% of them, Avalanche 32%. The line is what actually happened: Blues by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blues by 3+42.6%
Blues by 210.6%
Blues by 115.2%
Avalanche by 116.6%
Avalanche by 25.7%
Avalanche by 3+9.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 goals to the Avalanche: the final margin was Blues by 1, without the luck Blues by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blues4734.50−1.50
Avalanche4822.93−0.93

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 0:12 Hooking on the Blues (Jonatan Berggren): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P2 7:23 Tripping on the Avalanche (Nazem Kadri): 2 minutes on the power play +5% STL
P2 1:44 Holding on the Blues (Jonatan Berggren): 2 minutes on the power play +6% COL
P3 17:34 Holding the stick on the Blues (Jack Finley): 2 minutes on the power play +6% COL
P3 15:40 Slashing on the Avalanche (Nathan MacKinnon): 2 minutes on the power play +6% STL
P3 8:19 Hooking on the Avalanche (Josh Manson): 2 minutes on the power play +8% STL
P3 1:54 Slashing on the Avalanche (Gabriel Landeskog): 2 minutes on the power play +6% STL

When it happened

Avalanche’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Avalanche were ahead in it, below while the Blues were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 8:05 Dylan Holloway’s wrist shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 39% chance +7% COL –
2 P1 7:59 Robert Thomas scored on a slap shot from 32 feetShooting · 13% chance +15% STL –
3 P1 4:50 Parker Kelly scored on a tip from 29 feetShooting · 4% chance +17% COL –
4 P2 16:20 Brent Burns scored on a wrist shot from 63 feetShooting · 1% chance +19% COL –
5 P2 15:51 Robert Thomas scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 18% chance +16% STL –
6 P3 8:19 Hooking on the Avalanche (Josh Manson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% STL –
7 P3 7:09 Jimmy Snuggerud’s wrist shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 50% chance +18% COL –
8 P3 2:50 Robert Thomas scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 19% chance +34% STL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blues 74% · Avalanche 26%

Final margin
Blues by 1
Luck in goals
0.4 for the Avalanche
Luck-adjusted margin
Blues by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Blues 68% · Avalanche 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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