luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 5, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Devils at Canadiens, Apr 5, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Devils beat the Canadiens 3–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Canadiens had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 13 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

The biggest swing (P2, 1:48 left): Cody Glass scored on a snap shot from 19 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Devils.

Final

New Jersey Devils 3
Montreal Canadiens 0

April 5, 2026 · Centre Bell

Luck index +36 Devils lucky · −36 Canadiens

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Devils win 6, Canadiens win 4.

  1. 1 NJD 6 MTL 0
  2. 2 NJD 7 MTL 3
  3. 3 NJD 4 MTL 1
  4. 4 NJD 3 MTL 1
  5. 5 NJD 5 MTL 4
  6. 6 NJD 4 MTL 3
  7. 7 NJD 2 MTL 3
  8. 8 NJD 2 MTL 3
  9. 9 NJD 1 MTL 3
  10. 10 NJD 4 MTL 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Devils win 64% of them, Canadiens 36%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Devils by 3+34.3%
Devils by 211.5%
Devils by 118.6%
Canadiens by 119.7%
Canadiens by 27.0%
Canadiens by 3+8.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 goals to the Devils: the final margin was Devils by 3, without the luck Devils by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Devils3423.57−1.57
Canadiens3802.69−2.69

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:23 Tripping on the Canadiens (Kaiden Guhle): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P2 13:42 Holding on the Devils (Brian Halonen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P2 11:33 High sticking on the Canadiens (Lane Hutson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P3 19:10 Cross checking on the Devils (Luke Hughes): 2 minutes on the power play +3% MTL
P3 13:49 Tripping on the Devils (Dougie Hamilton): 2 minutes on the power play +2% MTL
P3 7:00 Instigator on the Devils (Brenden Dillon): 2 minutes on the power play +2% MTL

When it happened

Canadiens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canadiens were ahead in it, below while the Devils were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:23 Tripping on the Canadiens (Kaiden Guhle): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NJD –
2 P1 9:13 Timo Meier scored on a snap shot from 1 feetShooting · 82% chance +3% NJD –
3 P1 3:25 Oliver Kapanen hit the right post with a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 17% chance +3% NJD –
4 P2 18:35 Oliver Kapanen’s snap shot from 11 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +4% NJD –
5 P2 13:42 Holding on the Devils (Brian Halonen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% MTL –
6 P2 12:55 Dawson Mercer’s slap shot from 17 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance +3% MTL –
7 P2 11:33 High sticking on the Canadiens (Lane Hutson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NJD –
8 P2 1:48 Cody Glass scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% NJD –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Devils 87% · Canadiens 13%

Final margin
Devils by 3
Luck in goals
1.2 for the Devils
Luck-adjusted margin
Devils by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Devils 64% · Canadiens 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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