luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 11, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Penguins, Apr 11, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Capitals beat the Penguins 6–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Penguins had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 19 points of win probability to the Penguins.

The biggest swing (P2, 17:55 left): Anthony Mantha scored on a wrist shot from 46 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Penguins.

Final

Washington Capitals 6
Pittsburgh Penguins 3

April 11, 2026 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +33 Capitals lucky · −33 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 7, Penguins win 3.

  1. 1 WSH 6 PIT 1
  2. 2 WSH 5 PIT 2
  3. 3 WSH 4 PIT 1
  4. 4 WSH 2 PIT 0
  5. 5 WSH 2 PIT 0
  6. 6 WSH 3 PIT 2
  7. 7 WSH 1 PIT 0
  8. 8 WSH 0 PIT 1
  9. 9 WSH 1 PIT 2
  10. 10 WSH 0 PIT 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Capitals win 67% of them, Penguins 33%. The line is what actually happened: Capitals by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+31.2%
Capitals by 213.8%
Capitals by 122.3%
Penguins by 120.3%
Penguins by 27.2%
Penguins by 3+5.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 goals to the Capitals: the final margin was Capitals by 3, without the luck Capitals by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals4752.63+2.37
Penguins2731.59+1.41

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 5:17 Holding on the Penguins (Kevin Hayes): 2 minutes on the power play +3% WSH
P3 14:44 Hooking on the Penguins (Justin Brazeau): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 18:21 Aliaksei Protas scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 11% chance +17% WSH –
2 P2 17:55 Anthony Mantha scored on a wrist shot from 46 feetShooting · 2% chance +19% PIT –
3 P2 13:58 Ryan Leonard scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 14% chance +18% WSH –
4 P2 11:52 Tom Wilson scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 16% chance +14% WSH –
5 P2 8:13 Noel Acciari scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 21% chance +13% PIT –
6 P2 8:02 Ryan Leonard scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% WSH –
7 P2 3:10 Kevin Hayes scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 4% chance +16% PIT –
8 P3 14:04 Ilya Protas scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 17% chance +13% WSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 89% · Penguins 11%

Final margin
Capitals by 3
Luck in goals
1.2 for the Capitals
Luck-adjusted margin
Capitals by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 67% · Penguins 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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