2025-26 regular season · April 9, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Panthers at Senators, Apr 9, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Senators beat the Panthers 5–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 13:11 left): Drake Batherson scored on a deflected shot from 10 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Senators.
Final
 Florida Panthers | 1 |
|---|---|
 Ottawa Senators | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Senators lucky · −34 Panthers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Senators win 7.
- 1 FLA 4 OTT 1
- 2 FLA 3 OTT 2
- 3 FLA 4 OTT 3
- 4 FLA 1 OTT 2
- 5 FLA 3 OTT 4
- 6 FLA 0 OTT 2
- 7 FLA 0 OTT 2
- 8 FLA 2 OTT 5
- 9 FLA 1 OTT 4
- 10 FLA 2 OTT 7
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Panthers win 34% of them, Senators 66%. The line is what actually happened: Senators by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 3+ | 6.4% |
| Panthers by 2 | 6.2% |
| Panthers by 1 | 21.5% |
| Senators by 1 | 22.1% |
| Senators by 2 | 12.7% |
| Senators by 3+ | 31.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Panthers | 37 | 1 | 1.70 | −0.70 |
 Senators | 43 | 4 | 2.84 | +1.16 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:07 | Tripping on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P1 0:42 | Tripping on the Senators (Brady Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% FLA |
When it happened
Senators’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:07 | Tripping on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% OTT | – |
| 2 | P1 13:11 | Drake Batherson scored on a deflected shot from 10 feetShooting · 11% chance | +14% OTT | – |
| 3 | P1 11:01 | Claude Giroux hit the left post with a slap shot from 16 feetShooting · 16% chance | +2% FLA | – |
| 4 | P1 10:11 | Jordan Spence missed the net with a slap shot from 20 feetShooting · 14% chance | +2% FLA | – |
| 5 | P1 3:00 | Fabian Zetterlund scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 7% chance | +13% OTT | – |
| 6 | P1 0:42 | Tripping on the Senators (Brady Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% FLA | – |
| 7 | P2 6:22 | A.J. Greer’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance | +2% OTT | – |
| 8 | P3 16:57 | Artem Zub scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 10% chance | +5% OTT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 8% · Senators 92%
- Final margin
- Senators by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for the Senators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Senators by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 34% · Senators 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 27, 2025-26
- Senators at Islanders Apr 11, 2026 · OTT 3–0 · replay 32% for the winner
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- Panthers at Maple Leafs Apr 11, 2026 · FLA 6–2 · replay 44% for the winner
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- Panthers at Canadiens Apr 7, 2026 · MTL 4–3 SO · replay 48% for the winner
- Capitals at Maple Leafs Apr 8, 2026 · WSH 4–0 · replay 52% for the winner
- Lightning at Bruins Apr 11, 2026 · TBL 2–1 · replay 54% for the winner
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