2025-26 season · final
Ottawa Senators, 2025-26: game by game
The Senators went 44–27–11 (99 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 99.7 points. Luck cost them 0.7: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 16–21; in overtime 3–10, in the shootout 3–1.
Playoffs: 0–4.
Every game
How often the Senators win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | @ Lightning | W 5–4 | 57% | +43 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Panthers | L 2–6 | 32% | −32 | |
| Oct 13, 2025 | vs Predators | L 1–4 | 52% | −52 | |
| Oct 15, 2025 | @ Sabres | L 4–8 | 61% | −61 | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | vs Kraken | W 4–3 | 36% | +64 | SO |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Islanders | L 4–5 | 56% | −56 | |
| Oct 21, 2025 | vs Oilers | L 2–3 | 50% | −50 | OT |
| Oct 23, 2025 | vs Flyers | W 2–1 | 51% | +49 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Capitals | W 7–1 | 74% | +26 | |
| Oct 27, 2025 | vs Bruins | W 7–2 | 64% | +36 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | @ Blackhawks | L 3–7 | 57% | −57 | |
| Oct 30, 2025 | vs Flames | W 4–3 | 53% | +47 | SO |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Canadiens | L 3–4 | 27% | −27 | OT |
| Nov 6, 2025 | @ Bruins | L 2–3 | 44% | −44 | OT |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Flyers | W 3–2 | 47% | +53 | OT |
| Nov 9, 2025 | vs Mammoth | W 4–2 | 51% | +49 | |
| Nov 11, 2025 | vs Stars | L 2–3 | 48% | −48 | OT |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Bruins | W 5–3 | 40% | +60 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Kings | L 0–1 | 60% | −60 | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ Ducks | W 3–2 | 69% | +31 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Sharks | W 3–2 | 67% | +33 | |
| Nov 24, 2025 | @ Kings | L 1–2 | 58% | −58 | |
| Nov 26, 2025 | @ Golden Knights | W 4–3 | 29% | +71 | SO |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @ Blues | L 3–4 | 41% | −41 | |
| Nov 30, 2025 | @ Stars | L 1–6 | 44% | −44 | |
| Dec 2, 2025 | @ Canadiens | W 5–2 | 73% | +27 | |
| Dec 4, 2025 | vs Rangers | L 2–4 | 49% | −49 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vs Blues | L 1–2 | 71% | −71 | |
| Dec 9, 2025 | vs Devils | L 3–4 | 59% | −59 | |
| Dec 11, 2025 | @ Blue Jackets | W 6–3 | 55% | +45 | |
| Dec 13, 2025 | @ Wild | L 2–3 | 67% | −67 | |
| Dec 15, 2025 | @ Jets | W 3–2 | 50% | +50 | OT |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Penguins | W 4–0 | 58% | +42 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs Blackhawks | W 6–4 | 81% | +19 | |
| Dec 21, 2025 | @ Bruins | W 6–2 | 62% | +38 | |
| Dec 23, 2025 | vs Sabres | L 2–3 | 71% | −71 | OT |
| Dec 27, 2025 | @ Maple Leafs | L 5–7 | 46% | −46 | |
| Dec 29, 2025 | vs Blue Jackets | L 1–4 | 41% | −41 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Capitals | W 4–3 | 61% | +39 | |
| Jan 3, 2026 | vs Jets | W 4–2 | 48% | +52 | |
| Jan 5, 2026 | vs Red Wings | L 3–5 | 69% | −69 | |
| Jan 7, 2026 | @ Mammoth | L 1–3 | 48% | −48 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | @ Avalanche | L 2–8 | 33% | −33 | |
| Jan 10, 2026 | vs Panthers | L 2–3 | 65% | −65 | |
| Jan 13, 2026 | vs Canucks | W 2–1 | 62% | +38 | |
| Jan 14, 2026 | @ Rangers | W 8–4 | 69% | +31 | |
| Jan 17, 2026 | vs Canadiens | L 5–6 | 75% | −75 | OT |
| Jan 18, 2026 | @ Red Wings | L 3–4 | 29% | −29 | OT |
| Jan 20, 2026 | @ Blue Jackets | W 4–1 | 47% | +53 | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | @ Predators | L 3–5 | 52% | −52 | |
| Jan 24, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 1–4 | 57% | −57 | |
| Jan 25, 2026 | vs Golden Knights | W 7–1 | 59% | +41 | |
| Jan 28, 2026 | vs Avalanche | W 5–2 | 63% | +37 | |
| Jan 31, 2026 | vs Devils | W 4–1 | 66% | +34 | |
| Feb 2, 2026 | @ Penguins | W 3–2 | 67% | +33 | |
| Feb 3, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 3–4 | 67% | −67 | |
| Feb 5, 2026 | @ Flyers | W 2–1 | 61% | +39 | OT |
| Feb 26, 2026 | vs Red Wings | L 1–2 | 69% | −69 | OT |
| Feb 28, 2026 | @ Maple Leafs | W 5–2 | 61% | +39 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | @ Oilers | L 4–5 | 36% | −36 | OT |
| Mar 5, 2026 | @ Flames | W 4–1 | 75% | +26 | |
| Mar 7, 2026 | @ Kraken | W 7–4 | 69% | +31 | |
| Mar 9, 2026 | @ Canucks | W 2–0 | 73% | +27 | |
| Mar 11, 2026 | vs Canadiens | L 2–3 | 49% | −49 | |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Ducks | W 2–0 | 47% | +53 | |
| Mar 15, 2026 | vs Sharks | W 7–4 | 63% | +37 | |
| Mar 18, 2026 | @ Capitals | L 1–4 | 55% | −55 | |
| Mar 19, 2026 | vs Islanders | W 3–2 | 68% | +32 | |
| Mar 21, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | W 5–2 | 78% | +22 | |
| Mar 23, 2026 | @ Rangers | W 2–1 | 70% | +30 | |
| Mar 24, 2026 | @ Red Wings | W 3–2 | 48% | +52 | |
| Mar 26, 2026 | vs Penguins | L 3–4 | 36% | −36 | SO |
| Mar 28, 2026 | @ Lightning | L 2–4 | 51% | −51 | |
| Mar 31, 2026 | @ Panthers | L 3–6 | 23% | −23 | |
| Apr 2, 2026 | vs Sabres | W 4–1 | 54% | +46 | |
| Apr 4, 2026 | vs Wild | L 1–4 | 47% | −47 | |
| Apr 5, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | W 6–3 | 73% | +27 | |
| Apr 7, 2026 | vs Lightning | W 6–2 | 70% | +30 | |
| Apr 9, 2026 | vs Panthers | W 5–1 | 66% | +34 | |
| Apr 11, 2026 | @ Islanders | W 3–0 | 32% | +68 | |
| Apr 12, 2026 | @ Devils | L 3–4 | 58% | −58 | OT |
| Apr 15, 2026 | vs Maple Leafs | W 3–1 | 72% | +28 | |
| Apr 18, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 0–2 | 23% | −23 | |
| Apr 20, 2026 | @ Hurricanes | L 2–3 | 37% | −37 | OT |
| Apr 23, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 1–2 | 34% | −34 | |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Hurricanes | L 2–4 | 54% | −54 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Senators’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Shooting | +16.5 |
| Empty-net goals | +11.0 |
| Shootout | +2.0 |
| Overtime | −6.9 |
| Goaltending | −25.6 |