luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 18, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Red Wings, Jan 18, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Red Wings beat the Senators 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Senators had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 27 points of win probability to the Senators.

The biggest swing (OT): the Red Wings won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Red Wings.

Final (OT)

Ottawa Senators 3
Detroit Red Wings 4

January 18, 2026 · Little Caesars Arena

Luck index +29 Red Wings lucky · −29 Senators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 3, Red Wings win 7.

  1. 1 OTT 6 DET 3
  2. 2 OTT 5 DET 3
  3. 3 OTT 3 DET 2
  4. 4 OTT 5 DET 6
  5. 5 OTT 5 DET 6
  6. 6 OTT 1 DET 3
  7. 7 OTT 1 DET 4
  8. 8 OTT 2 DET 6
  9. 9 OTT 2 DET 7
  10. 10 OTT 2 DET 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.7 replays ended

Senators win 29% of them, Red Wings 71%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+7.7%
Senators by 25.7%
Senators by 115.2%
Red Wings by 116.3%
Red Wings by 210.8%
Red Wings by 3+44.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 goals to the Senators: the final margin was Red Wings by 1, without the luck Red Wings by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators3732.48+0.52
Red Wings5534.39−1.39

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:13 Holding on the Red Wings (Andrew Copp): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P1 14:38 Elbowing on the Senators (Nick Cousins): 2 minutes on the power play +3% DET
P1 12:00 Too many men on the ice on the Senators (OTT): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P1 3:04 Tripping on the Red Wings (Moritz Seider): 2 minutes on the power play +4% OTT
P2 10:18 Interference on the Senators (Ridly Greig): 2 minutes on the power play +5% DET
P2 3:43 Holding on the Senators (David Perron): 2 minutes on the power play +5% DET
P2 2:00 Interference on the Red Wings (Elmer Soderblom): 2 minutes on the power play +5% OTT
P3 19:11 Tripping on the Senators (Brady Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power play +6% DET

When it happened

Red Wings’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Red Wings were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:34 Drake Batherson scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 21% chance +13% OTT –
2 P1 14:55 Dylan Cozens scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 13% chance +13% OTT –
3 P1 12:44 Axel Sandin-Pellikka scored on a wrist shot from 51 feetShooting · 2% chance +14% DET –
4 P1 11:40 James van Riemsdyk’s wrist shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 49% chance +8% OTT –
5 P2 13:54 Lucas Raymond scored on a snap shot from 39 feetShooting · 6% chance +19% DET –
6 P2 3:07 James van Riemsdyk scored on a between-the-legs shot from 3 feetShooting · 65% chance +8% DET –
7 P2 0:55 Shane Pinto scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 16% chance +20% OTT –
8 OT The Red Wings won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% DET –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 21% · Red Wings 79%

Final margin
Red Wings by 1
Luck in goals
0.5 for the Senators
Luck-adjusted margin
Red Wings by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Senators 29% · Red Wings 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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